Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1Gn.DE) Updating estimates post 2Q results

Equity Research 23 July 2026 | 9:32PM BST

Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1Gn.DE): Updating estimates post 2Q results

We update our forecasts to reflect DB1’s 2Q26 results (post-market, 22 July), Oliver Carruthers, CFA | comments from management on the earnings call (23 July) and latest market data Goldman Sachs International for July. Driven primarily by stronger growth in Securities Services vs our prior Anshika Mehrotra expectations, along with higher NII forecasts within Fund and Securities Services on | latest rate expectations, our net revenue forecasts rise by c.1% on average over Goldman Sachs India SPL

FY26-27, with our FY26 revenue estimate 1% ahead of consensus expectations. All Naimeh Sabourian | in, our net income estimates over FY26-28 come up by c.1% on average, and our Goldman Sachs International 12-month PT increases marginally to €275 (from €273). Going forward, and incremental to these results, we expect investors will focus on: (i) the growth Tom Ferguson | trajectory within IMS after a 3% miss in 2Q and a sequential slowdown in ARR growth Goldman Sachs International in Software Solutions; (ii) fixed income revenue growth, in the context of OTC clearing and repo volume momentum, and activity related to the active account requirement a key catalyst given the large onboarded-but-inactive client base; (iii) the near-to-medium term outlook for commodities volumes given the normalisation following elevated March volatility, with management noting structural growth drivers remain in place; (iv) cost development over the near to medium term, as DB1 reiterated guidance of underlying cost growth of ~3% in FY26 excluding exceptional costs related to the proposed acquisition of Allfunds; and (v) execution on strategic acquisitions. On (i), we highlight ARR growth in 2Q slowed down to +14% YoY vs +16% in 1Q and +18% in 4Q25 in the context of a tougher comparable base, while we note management commentary on expectations of stronger Software Solutions growth over H2, supported by a tier 1 client win due to be signed in Q3.

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Goldman Sachs Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1Gn.DE)

Exhibit 1: GS new vs old estimates GS New GS Old New vs Old Deutsche Boerse (€mn) FY26 FY27 FY28 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY26 FY27 FY28 Investment Management Solutions 1,408 1,383 1,545 1,412 1,401 1,575 0% -1% -2% Trading & Clearing 2,782 2,926 3,093 2,777 2,921 3,088 0% 0% 0% Fund Services % 1% 1% Securities Services 1,744 1,817 1,857 1,706 1,753 1,805 2% 4% 3% Net revenue 6,536 6,787 7,212 6,507 6,733 7,180 0% 1% 0% Net revenue ex treasury result 5,709 5,916 6,360 5,678 5,895 6,353 1% 0% 0% o/w treasury result % 4% 3% Total operating expenses (2,643) (2,713) (2,804) (2,638) (2,699) (2,793) 0% 1% 0% EBITDA 3,907 4,098 4,432 3,882 4,059 4,410 1% 1% 0% EBITDA ex treasury result 3,080 3,227 3,580 3,053 3,220 3,584 1% 0% 0% EBITDA margin 59.8% 60.4% 61.4% 59.7% 60.3% 61.4% 0.1pp 0.1pp 0.0pp Net income 2,257 2,380 2,601 2,235 2,349 2,585 1% 1% 1%

Selected line items presented in the table

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: GSe vs pre-results company-compiled consensus GS estimates CC Consensus GS vs CC Consensus Deutsche Boerse (€mn) FY26 FY27 FY26 FY27 FY26 FY27

Investment Management Solutions 1,408 1,383 1,429 1,422 (1%) (3%) Trading & Clearing 2,782 2,926 2,741 2,910 1% 1% Fund Services % 0% Securities Services 1,744 1,817 1,706 1,785 2% 2% Net revenue 6,536 6,787 6,478 6,776 1% 0% Net revenue ex treasury result 5,709 5,916 5,673 5,957 1% (1%) Total operating expenses (2,643) (2,713) (2,623) (2,706) 1% 0% EBITDA 3,907 4,098 3,874 4,092 1% 0% EBITDA ex treasury result 3,080 3,227 3,069 3,273 0% (1%) D&A and impairments (…