Duttenhoefer´s Daily (14.08.2026)

Duttenhoefer´s Daily (14.08.2026)

S&P +65bps @7799 (+14% ytd) mit einem neuen Allzeithoch; Nasdaq +115 bps mit anhaltender Tech Stärke; Workday +18% nach den Headlines um einen Silver Lake bid; der Software Sektor ist nun wieder flat auf das Jahr gesehen; Amazon hat 6 der letzten 8 Tage verloren; FT schreibt von einem Anthropic IPO bis Oktober bei $2 Bio Bewertung; Zinsen unverändert mit US 10yr bei 4.66%; WIRP (Fed prob of a Sep hike) steht bei 32%; Brent $87, Gold $4324 und Bitcoin $63.3k; Nvidia Zahlen am 26. August sind das nächste große Marktevent.

US x Iran: US will soon announce what it bills as unprecedented economic measures against Iran, said Bessent. Link

interessanter Gedanke zu Software: we launched a software pair trade (GSPUSFTX) which consists of going long software that AI cannot realistically displace because they require physical execution, regulatory entrenchment, integration complexity, or human accountability, and businesses that benefit directly from increased AI usage – compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI development platforms (GSTMTSOL) vs going short software-tilted workflows that AI could increasingly automate or rebuild internally, potentially reducing need for outsourcing (GSTMTSOS). Link

Gold: 2 gute Punkte aus dem letzten Newsletter von Fred Hickey; U.S. speculators currently only hold >350k futures contracts which is a level not seen since 2013; Shanghai Exchange open futures lots have also collapsed to multi-year lows and are 45% below their top last year. Link sales of U.S. gold eagle coins from the U.S. Mint declined by around 50% yoy in 2025. Link

Uber: plans to deploy 2k of Pony.ai’s self-driving taxis across Europe, and expand the robotaxi partnership to the Middle East; they already launched a commercial robotaxi service in Croatia this March. Link

OpenAI: annualized revenue run rate has crossed $40bn, effectively doubling its financial pace from late 2025; Anthropic reported a $47bn run rate in May. Link

oil: our colleagues analyse the current development and show different scenarios for the coming months; prices increased recently on limited progress surrounding US-Iran talks, as well as increasing market tightness as inventories continue to draw while global demand rises. Link

EU Baskets: our teams is publishing a quick weekly on flows and interesting ideas; we saw renewed demand in European Defense and supply in EU Luxury; net de-grossing in our EU China Competition basket was also interesting. Link

Defence spending: structural support for defence spending remains on track across the EU (despite stock weakness); funding visibility has improved; spending upgrade is sizeable, uneven and increasingly led by capital expenditure. The European Defence Agency expects EU defence spending to reach EUR 454bn (2.3% of GDP) in 2026 up from EUR 214bn (1.5% of GDP) in 2021. Link see our GS Defense (GSXEDEFX) and GS New Defense (GSXENDEF) baskets.

Sandisk (stock +14%): hosted its investor day presenting an update on the business and financial targets; market liked the CFO comment that the company would aggressively return excess cash it generates to shareholders. Link

Nvidia preview: reports 2Q earnings on 26th Aug; we expect a solid quarter with meaningful upside to guidance supported by tight GPU supply/demand trends, but think the bar for the stock is elevated given its +12% move in two weeks; details here: Link

Stat des Tages: we see 170% global data center power demand growth in 2030 vs. 2025 levels, more than 60% of which comes from the US. Link

Chart des Tages: Free Cash Flow estimates point to negative hyperscaler FCF through 2027 before a rebound in 2028. Link