Duttenhoefer´s Daily (17.08.2026)

Duttenhoefer´s Daily (17.08.2026)

S&P -17bps @7786 (+14% ytd) mit einer soliden Woche (+40bps aufgrund guter Earnings, dem CPI und erneutem AI Optimismus); asiatische Aktien starten freundlich (Nikkei/Hang Seng +31bps/+161bps); Brent $89, Gold $4395 und Bitcoin $63.5k; Zinsen unverändert mit US 10yr bei 4.66%; die US x Iran 60 Tage enden heute; FOMC minutes diese Woche; Nvidia Zahlen am 26. August sind das nächste große Marktevent.

Dronen: Trump mit neuen Zöllen; imposed tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and their components, with EU manufacturers facing a preferential rate of 15% and British firms 10%. Link our GS Global Drones baskets with 36 companies can be found under GSXGDRON Index on Bloomberg.

AI Ausgaben: interessante Zahlen; the top 1% of US businesses spent a record median of $7,400 per employee per month on AI in July; this compares to a record $650 per employee for the top 10% and $11.95 per employee for the median firm. Link

Kupfer: erneute “Shortage” im Fokus; LME’s front-month copper spread surged to a $370 per ton premium on Friday, the widest one-month spread since the 2021 supply squeeze. Link

interessant: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei with an interesting post on AI which has been reposted a lot over the weekend; despite his cautious tone, the underlying worldview is actually extremely bullish on AI capabilities; his AI disagreement is about how concentrated that power becomes, how risks are governed, and how the industry earns legitimacy while getting there.

Alibaba's Qwen: has become the world's most-downloaded open AI model with >3bn global downloads underscoring the growing reach of Chinese open-source AI among developers worldwide. Link

Jan Hatzius: unser Chefvolkswirt mit einigen guten Punkte zu Makro und der Fed; “after 2 months of materially softer jobs and inflation data, it’s hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes. Therefore, a hike at the September meeting has become very unlikely, barring a dramatic shift in the tone of the August data due in early September (which we don’t expect).” Link

US consumer: fiscal support helped consumer spending accelerate despite elevated oil prices but we expect a slowdown ahead; we expect below-consensus real consumer spending growth of just 1-1.5% in 2H26 reflecting the poor starting point for consumer cashflow (the personal saving rate is low and real disposable income has increased only 0.5% over the last year), the fading boost from strong tax refunds, and a continued headwind from elevated oil prices. Link

Futures on compute costs: CME and Silicon Data have announced plans to launch two new futures contracts tied to the cost of AI computing power in October; goal is to give companies a way to manage the rising and often unpredictable cost of “compute”; the new products, called Silicon Data H100 Rental Index Futures and Silicon Data B200 Rental Index Futures, will track indexes that measure hourly GPU rental costs. Link (thx Soeren S.)

Ferrari: first ever all-electric car has fetched $40m in a charity sale, setting a record for a new car sold at auction. Link

Interessant zu Software: we launched a software pair trade (GSPUSFTX) which consists of going long software that AI cannot realistically displace because they require physical execution, regulatory entrenchment, integration complexity, or human accountability, and businesses that benefit directly from increased AI usage – compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI development platforms (GSTMTSOL) vs going short software-tilted workflows that AI could increasingly automate or rebuild internally, potentially reducing need for outsourcing (GSTMTSOS). Link

2Q earnings: S&P EPS growth is tracking at +31% yoy excluding the "other income" related to some private investment stakes; we estimate that AI infrastructure stocks have accounted for 50% of that EPS growth; earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating; the median S&P 500 company grew EPS by 14% year/year during Q2. Link

Stat des Tages: hedge funds net bought US equities every day this week and at the second fastest pace in the past year; details from our PB colleagues here: Link

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