Duttenhoefer´s Daily (18.08.2026)

Duttenhoefer´s Daily (18.08.2026)

S&P -52bps @7745 (+13% ytd) auf niedrigem Volumen; pro momentum Handel mit Memory +4% und AI vs AI at risk auch +4%; unser GS high beta momentum basket lag +5% (der Juli war für den Basket der schwächste Monat seit 2000); Brent $91 (Iran MoU abgelaufen); Gold $4391 und Bitcoin $64k; Zinsen global höher mit US 10yr bei 4.73% und 30yr bei 5.32% (höchstes Level seit 2007); Japan 10yr bei 2.93% (höchstes Level seit 1996); FOMC minutes morgen; Nvidia Zahlen am 26. August sind das nächste große Marktevent.

US x Iran: die 60-day deadline ist nun abgelaufen; Trump again said he is in no rush and warned of an attack on Oman if it “gets in the way” of efforts in the Strait of Hormuz. Link

Chips: Trump administration is likely to block Apple from using memory chips from China's CXMT; Howard Lutnick said he had directly told Apple already. Link

US Konsument: only 8% of consumers expect income growth to outpace inflation over the next year. Link

Chinesische Autos: Chinese car shipments surged to 1.1m in June (+71% yoy) vs Germany at roughly 250k; the chart starting 2010 tell the story. Link

power of duration: Pimco´s 25+ yr zero coupon UST ETF (see ZROZ on BBG) is down -65% since 2021. (BBG)

Anthropic: annual rev run rate topped $65bn in July vs $47bn ⁠in May and $9bn at the end of 2025. Link

Shein (online fast-fashion retailer): has reportedly lowered its target valuation to around $25bn for its HK IPO which is a steep drop from the $30-40bn aimed for earlier in August (and $100bn peak valuation in 2022). Link

Gold: location of central bank’s gold holdings appears increasingly top of mind for reserve managers and BoE remains a preferred custody; GS nowcast estimates central bank purchases of 57 tonnes in June (100 tonnes/month on a 3-month seasonally adjusted basis versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes), with a large contribution from China; central bank diversification remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end-2026 forecast. Link

Uber: investing in drone delivery company Zipline aiming for 1m Uber Eats drone deliveries per day by the end of 2029. Link our GS Global Drones baskets with 36 companies can be found under GSXGDRON Index on Bloomberg.

Defence: support for defence spending remains on track in the EU; funding visibility has improved; spending upgrade is sizeable, uneven and increasingly led by capital expenditure; EDA expects EU defence spending to reach EUR 454bn (2.3% of GDP) in 2026 up from EUR 214bn (1.5% of GDP) in 2021. Link see our GS Defense (GSXEDEFX) and GS New Defense (GSXENDEF) baskets.

2Q Gewinne: S&P EPS growth is tracking at +31% yoy excluding the "other income" related to some private investment stakes; we estimate that AI infrastructure stocks have accounted for 50% of that EPS growth; earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating; the median S&P 500 company grew EPS by 14% year/year during Q2. Link

Stat des Tages: S&P free cash flow; I didn’t expect this to be better-than-expected with all this capex going on; for S&P (ex-financials), FCF actually grew >30% yoy in 1H26. Link

Chart des Tages: Cumulative flows from Global investors. Link

Source: Goldman Sachs; past performance is no indicator for future performance.

Johannes Duttenhoefer, Executive Director, Global Banking & Markets Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE | Marienturm | Taunusanlage 9-10 | D-60329 Frankfurt am Main Email: | Tel: