Duttenhoefer´s Daily (19.08.2026)

Duttenhoefer´s Daily (19.08.2026)

S&P -69bps @7691 (+12% ytd) mit einem klaren Momentum Reversal; unser High Beta Momentum Basket (GSPRHIMO) verlor -6%; Sox auch -5% (immer noch +69% ytd); Kospi folgt dem Trend heute mit - 6% (Samsung/SkHynix -6%/-7%); Zinsen etwas tiefer mit US10yr bei 4.69%; Brent $92, Gold $4338 und Bitcoin $64.2k; FOMC Protokolle heute; Nvidia Ergebnisse am 26 August.

Unitree Robotics: hat heute mehr als 600% gewonnen nach dem Börsengang; surged >600% to US$66bn valuation in Shanghai share debut. Link China ordered local governments and state-owned enterprises to deploy 10,000+ humanoid robots in commercial use by the end of 2026. Link

Klarna (-22% yday): Mgmt auf dem gestrigen Call zu Deutschland “what we saw towards the back end of 2Q was a softening in basically the consumer discretionary spend in Germany. Germany is our largest share of volume or our largest market from a volume perspective”.

Terafab: sehr beeindruckend; SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk called it “the largest and most valuable building on Earth by far.”; will be 2.5 miles long and 100 million square feet in area; the first phase is pegged at a cost of $16.8bn; Terafab intends to make chips for self-driving vehicles, humanoid robots and orbital and terrestrial data centers. Link

AT&T: open models currently power about 25% their AI usage and they expect this to rise to 70-80%; switching from closed, proprietary AI models to open models has already resulted in savings of 80% to 90% for AT&T in certain applications. Link

Gold: weiter konstruktiv; central bank diversification remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end-2026 forecast. Link

Fed: “after 2 months of materially softer jobs and inflation data, it’s hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes. Therefore, a hike at the September meeting has become very unlikely, barring a dramatic shift in the tone of the August data due in early September (which we don’t expect).” Link

heute um 19Uhr deutscher Zeit (es wird auch einen Replay geben): GS Monthly US Equity Flow & Positioning Webinar; we will review YTD and MTD flow, performance, and positioning color from the GS Equity Execution and Prime pads. We will also discuss geopolitics, rates, and TMT EPS prints reported so far. Link

dazu habe ich sehr viele Rückfragen erhalten: we launched a software pair trade (GSPUSFTX) which consists of going long software that AI cannot realistically displace because they require physical execution, regulatory entrenchment, integration complexity, or human accountability, and businesses that benefit directly from increased AI usage – compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI development platforms (GSTMTSOL) vs going short software-tilted workflows that AI could increasingly automate or rebuild internally, potentially reducing need for outsourcing (GSTMTSOS). Link

Token Costs: AI token costs are down -49% from their May level driven by Chinese models being a clear alternative to US peers; see SDLLMTK Index on Bloomberg.

immer ein Blick wert: Dataroma delivers a good overview on “star manager portfolios” showing their recent filings; I looked through them and Google, Uber, Netflix, Mastercard and a few more are shared favourites. Link

EU Baskets: our teams is publishing a quick weekly on flows and interesting ideas; we saw renewed demand in European Defense and supply in EU Luxury; net de-grossing in our EU China Competition basket was also interesting. Link

Stat des Tages: we have seen more than 20x one day -5% sell offs in High Beta Momentum YTD which is more than in the last 5 years combined. Link

Chart des Tages: BloombergNEF projects that starting next year, the U.S. won’t have enough data center power capacity to run all the AI server chips being produced. (BBG, thanks Patrick V.)