Duttenhoefer´s Daily (30.07.2026)

S&P -152bps @7316 (+7% ytd) on low volumes and muted trading activity; no Fed hike (5th meeting in a row); long rates higher with US30yr at 5.24% (highest level since 2007; massive steepening); Meta -7% and Msft +9% post market; Kospi -90bps with SkHynix -6% and Samsung -2%; US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran; Brent $90, Gold $4046 and Bitcoin $64k; Apple and Amazon numbers in focus (post market).

Middle East: US military said it had launched a new wave of strikes against Iranian targets; "We're going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them" (Trump). Link

FED: no change to the funds rate (9-3 vote), no substantive changes to the statement and no policy guidance; Warsh made several dovish comments during his press conference (e.g. downplayed AI-related price pressures); we continue to expect that softer core inflation in coming months will keep the Fed on hold for the remainder of 2026 (vs. market pricing 60% for a Sep hike). Link

Microsoft (+9% post-market): 4Q revs of $90bn (+17% cc yoy) was 3% above Cons and EPS of $4.74 (+23% yoy) was 11% above Cons; we view this quarter as a meaningful step in reversing the stock's multi-quarter period of underperformance; delivered tangible proof points across several key investor debates; Azure acceleration against ongoing capacity constraints and 1P mix allocation, improving AI unit economics with stable cloud margins, and increasing evidence of Copilot monetization; Copilot is showing stronger adoption and Msft exited 4Q with >30M paid Copilot seats (+10M net seat adds); BUY and increase our px target from $610 to $640. Link

Microsoft on their call: "we added 31 new data centers across 5 continents this quarter bringing the total to 88 this year; bringing capacity online faster than ever; AI sovereignty is increasingly top of mind for our customers; We offer the broadest model catalog in the cloud with over 11,000 models; since the start of the year, we have seen 5x increase in the number of customers building with models from multiple providers."

Meta (-7% post-market): Q2 revs $60.80bn (+28% yoy) vs. Cons $60.36bn; Q2 total daily active people were 3.60bn; 31% operating income margin (a bit lower than expected); guided Q326 revs to $61.0-64.0bn vs Cons $63bn; guided FY26 expenses of $165.0- 169.0bn vs. Cons $162bn and FY26 capex to $130-145bn vs Cons $137bn and prior guide $125-145bn; messaging was that while core advertising remains a healthy & early avenue to provide signal of return against levels of spend in AI broadly, management also remains excited on additional future monetization opportunities from AI; still BUY but adjust px target from $815 to $725. Link

China re AI: full text keynote speech by Xi Jinping; AI remains a national priority especially for the 15th Five-Year plan; AI is moving from software into the real economy; the next trillion-dollar opportunity isn’t chatbots but physical AI; strongly supports open source AI; AI should not become another export-controlled technology; AI must remain under human control. Link

interesting: post from Gavin Baker defending hyperscaler´s cash flow outlook; market underestimates how much future cash flow Msft, Amzn and Google will generate as legacy AI compute contracts roll over and are repriced at today’s much higher market rates; hyperscalers should be able to fund most of their massive AI infrastructure investments from operating cash flow rather than debt, making current credit concerns overstated. The real constraint on AI growth is not financing, but bringing enough power, grid capacity, and data centers online.

on Memory: hosted a Korea memory webinar; 1) DRAM pricing to continue solid growth throughout 2026 and significant upside for HBM in 2027; 2) long term agreements to provide strong binding power, 3) Chinese memory suppliers limited threat in the near-to- mid term, 4) stronger capacity addition however limited bit growth, and 5) Expects more of a gradual adoption of hybrid bonding. Link

Pete Callahan: Semis pacing for their biggest month of u/p relative to the S&P500 since Sept’01 (NDX pacing for its biggest month of u/p since ’02), it increasingly feels like positioning, valuations (NDX…