EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM closed 1 higher in a volatile week

Portfolio Strategy Research 24 July 2026 | 7:03PM BST

MSCI EM closed 1% higher in a volatile week; Korea and South Asian Oil-sensitives lagged; Foreign flows stay weak; Early 2Q results tracking ahead of strong expectations so far

n Performance: MSCI EM gained +0.6% w/w, led by Brazil pockets, including India and MENA. Sectorally, Tech, Sunil Koul | (+2%), Taiwan (+3%) and China (+1%) among majors Financials, Commodity sectors and Industrials are all Goldman Sachs International

while Korea (-2%) and South Asia (Philippines: -2%; tracking ahead of expectations. Tarun Lalwani, CFA | Indonesia: -2% and India: -2%) lagged. n The median earnings surprise (at least +/- 3%) has been Goldman Sachs India SPL

n Earnings/valuations: MXEF is trading at 10.2x fwd. P/E positive for India (+1%) and MENA (+9%), but negative Mambuna Njie | (-1.9 s.d, 10yr avg). EM 2026E EPS revised +0.6% w/w. for North Asia (-10%) and LatAm (-3%). Earnings Goldman Sachs International n Flows: EM equities saw foreign outflows of US$0.3bn surprises have been robust in Financials and Materials, with inflows in Korea (US$1.4bn) and India (US$0.6bn) and mixed in Tech and Consumer sectors. set against outflows in Taiwan (-US$2.2bn). n Macro: Central banks in South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey Focus: US-Iran Re-escalation n Brent Crude has risen back to ~US$100/bbl on renewed were on hold, while Hungary saw a rate cut. escalation in the Middle East conflict and the resulting drop in energy flows. With most EM markets trading Focus: 2Q Earnings Update below pre-war levels, equity moves have been relatively n With over 100 companies having reported (9% of moderate so far vs. the initial response earlier this year. companies, 25% of m.cap), 2Q earnings season for EM The median EM market is flat since July 6, compared to continues to track ahead of expectations, with a median -3% in the conflict period (between start of the conflict surprise of ~3%. At the aggregate level, beats have and April ceasefire). Within EM, North Asia, and select outpaced misses for both earnings (49% companies beat EM European markets (Hungary, Greece) that saw vs 36% missed) and sales (42% beats vs 8% misses). strong gains in recent months have lagged, alongside oil n Overall EPS growth is now tracking at 69% vs 64% at the importers (India, Egypt, Mexico) and conflict exposed start of the season. Regionally, while North Asia has led markets (Qatar, UAE). Oil exporters including Brazil, the upgrades for the quarter (EPSg of 220% vs 207% yoy Colombia, Saudi Arabia, have been relatively resilient. at the start), earnings growth is tracking higher in other

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Goldman Sachs EM Weekly Kickstart

Exhibit 1: 2Q reporting season has kicked off in EM... Exhibit 2: ...with a significant part of the market reporting in July

% of Companies % of Companies % of MSCI EM Cap % of MSCI EM Cap 30% 40% 30% 30% China China North Asia (Korea & Taiwan) 25% North Asia (Korea & Taiwan) 25% MENA 30% MENA 20% 20% 20% South & Southeast Asia South & Southeast Asia EM Europe & South Africa 15% 15% 20% EM Europe & South Africa LatAm 10% LatAm 10% 10% 10% 5% 5%

0% 0% Jul-04 Jul-11 Jul-18 Jul-25 Aug-01 Aug-08 Aug-15 Aug-22 Aug-29 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19 Jul-04 Jul-11 Jul-18 Jul-25 Aug-01 Aug-08 Aug-15 Aug-22 Aug-29 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19 Week Ending Week Ending

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: 2Q earnings are tracking ahead of expectations before the start of the Exhibit 4: Sectorally, 2Q EPS is tracking higher in Tech, Industrials, Commodity season driven by upgrades in all regions except EM Europe, LatAm and S. Africa sectors and Financials

2QCY26 YoY EPS Growth 300% 2QCY26 YoY EPS Growth 261% 250% 270% 245% 220% Tracking Estimate 240% 207% 200% 210% Consensus Expectations before Earnings Season Tracking Estimate 180% 150% 150% Consensus Expectations before Earnings Season 120% 89% 83% 90% 69% 100% 64% 62% 64% 69% 64% 60% 32%28% 27% 51% 58% 22% 17%18% 15%12%…