Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) Guidance raise highlights improving execution and evolving business model

Equity Research 12 August 2026 | 12:44PM EDT

Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) Guidance raise highlights improving execution and evolving business model; execution remains in focus

NRGV 12m Price Target: $3.00 Price: $3.58 Downside: 16.2% SELL Brian Lee, CFA NRGV’s 2Q26 revenue was above consensus estimates, while adj. | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC EBITDA came in below expectations. Importantly, the company Tyler Bisset, CFA raised its 2026 revenue and gross-margin guidance metrics. We note | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC that NRGV continues to advance its Asset Vault business, while its new 1.25GW AI infrastructure agreement provides meaningful Keshav Choudhary | Goldman Sachs India SPL revenue visibility into 2027. However, management indicated that the vast majority of 2H26 revenue is expected in 4Q26, leaving execution, working capital management and timely delivery as key Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: $615.3mn areas of focus. We remain Sell rated and provide further details on Enterprise value: $732.6mn 3m ADTV: $24.3mn the quarter within. United States Americas Clean Energy M&A Rank: 3 Takeaways GS Forecast __________________________________ n 2Q26 EBITDA misses, despite revenue and gross margin 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Revenue ($ mn) New upside. NRGV reported 2Q26 revenue of ~$17mn, which was Revenue ($ mn) Old EBITDA ($ mn) ( above GSe of ~$12mn and FactSet consensus of ~$14mn. EBIT ($ mn) ( )

Additionally, gross margins of 31% were above our 22% view. EPS ($) New EPS ($) Old ( ) NRGV reported 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of ($17mn), below P/E (X) NM NM NM NM Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GSe/consensus of ~($12mn)($15mn). Separately, the company Net debt/EBITDA (X) -- -- -- 5.3

improved its backlog to $2.00bn from $1.35bn in 1Q26. 6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E Approximately 40% of backlog is expected to convert to EPS ($) ( )

revenue over the next 12-18 months, while ~60% is tied to GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth owned and operated projects with long-term offtake arrangements. Additionally, NRGV’s developed pipeline Financial Returns

increased to $3.9bn from $3.5bn last quarter as the pipeline Multiple

increased to 3.5GWh from 3.2GWh. Integrated

n Guidance raised as the company continues to advance its IPP Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th model. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $270mn-$310mn from $225mn-$300mn and narrowed GAAP NRGV relative to Americas Coverage NRGV relative to Americas Clean Energy gross margin guidance to 20%-25% from 15%-25%. The Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. company continues to expect results to be heavily weighted See disclosures for details.

toward 2H26, with management indicating that the vast

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV)

Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) Balance Sheet ($ mn) _______________________________________ SELL Rating since Mar 14, 2022 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets P/E (X) NM NM NM NM Net PP&E EV/EBITDA (X) NM NM NM 22.8 Net intangibles -- -- -- -- EV/sales (X) 1.7 2.7 2.2 2.2 Total investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FCF yield (%) ( Other long-term assets EV/DACF (X) NM NM NM 23.6 Total assets CROCI (%) (32.4) (37.0) (8.2) NM ROE (%) (107.0) (220.7) NM NM Accounts payable Net debt/EBITDA (X) -- -- -- 5.3 Short-term debt Net debt/equity (%) ( ) Current lease liabilities -- -- -- -- Interest cover (X) ( ) Other current liabilities Inventory days Total current liabilities Receivable days Long-term debt Days payable…