Enersense 202608100700 fullreport

Commissioned Equity Research • 10 August 2026

Business Services Enersense Finland

Key Data Power has been strong Stock country Finland Bloomberg ESENSE FH Enersense's order book, especially for its Power segment, has been growing Reuters ESENSE.HE well. However, new projects will take time before they become visible in the Share price, close EUR 3.77 Free float 57.3% numbers, leaving little impact on Q2 2026. Net sales growth will therefore Market cap. (m) EUR 62.2 likely remain modest on the group level for Q2. In addition, adjusted EBITDA Company website Next report date 13 August 2026 could be EUR 3-4m in Q2, leaving relatively high expectations for H2 2026. The company has guided for clean EBITDA in the range of EUR 19-23m for 2026. Our forecast is at the lower end of the range. Our fair value range Performance remains at EUR 4.2-5.3, based on our DCF analysis and backed by a peer 10 group comparison. Based on our current estimates, Enersense's 2026E EV/ 7.5 EBIT is 7.3x (peer group median: 12.9x), including the EUR 30m hybrid debt. EUR 5 2.5 Our adjusted EBITDA forecast for Q2 is EUR 3.9m 0 Jan 2024 Jan 2025 Jan 2026 The order backlog was up by 56% in the Power segment in Q1 y/y. However, despite the overall improvement, order backlogs in the Connectivity and Energy Enersense Transition segments remained below year-ago levels in Q1. For Q2 2026, we Finland OMX Helsinki All-Share (Rebased) estimate group-level net sales of EUR 76m (LSEG Data & Analytics consensus Source: LSEG Data & Analytics EUR 74m) and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 3.9m (consensus EUR 3m). Energy Transition's order book should see support from a EUR 30m order announced in Valuation Approach Q2. Enersense will install pipelines and steel structures for the water treatment plant at a green steel mill in Northern Sweden. We forecast 2026 revenue growth of 5.2% (consensus: 6.8%). The midpoint of full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance is EUR 21m. Enersense could specify its guidance range by lowering the current upper end of EUR 19-23m due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, the weak economic environment and postponements of investments.

Data centres could offer notable growth in the medium term Enersense will deliver a substation (EUR 7m) for a data centre in Kouvola. An ordinary power station order could exceed EUR 20m, suggesting that even larger Estimate Changes data centre orders could be won in the future. On top of power station orders, EURm 2026E 2027E 2028E Enersense could also build power network and grid connections for areas with Total revenue -1% 0% 1% several data centre projects. A third data centre-related revenue source is for EBITDA (rep.) -5% 0% 2% telecommunication networks, mainly optical cables. An additional growth EBIT (adj.) -8% 0% 2% PTP -20% 0% 4% opportunity for Enersense is heat recovery. Overall, data centres could represent EPS (rep. EUR) -24% 0% 4% >10% of 2028E net sales, we calculate. EPS (adj. EUR) -24% 0% 4% DPS (ord. EUR) n.a. n.a. n.a. Room for positive surprises Source: Company data and Nordea estimates The medium-term EBITDA margin target is >7%, although we forecast 6- 7% EBITDA margins for 2026-27. Its financial target for revenue growth is 6-7%. Nordea IB & Equity - Analysts Our expectations for net sales growth have been slightly below 6% for 2026-27. Pasi Väisänen, CEFA Overall, its valuation is not challenging, meaning that there is decent upside to the share price if execution of the company's strategy is successful. Summary Table - Key Figures Svante Krokfors EURm E 2027E 2028E Total revenue EBITDA (adj.) EBIT (adj.) EBIT (adj.) margin 1.75% 1.45% 2.74% 3.00% 3.58% 4.28% 4.45% EPS (adj. EUR) - EPS (adj.) growth -197.3% -12.8% 50.5% -39.7% 142.7% 150.8% 15.6% DPS (ord. EUR) EV/Sales EV/EBIT (adj.) P/E (adj.) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. P/BV Dividend yield (ord.) 1.76% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% FCF yield before A&D, lease-adj. -12.8% -36.7% 20.5% 6.60% 12.9% 13.7% 15.3% Net debt Net debt/EBITDA ROCE 5.59% 4.93% 13.7% 12.1% 13.8% 16.4% 16.7% Source: Company data and Nordea estimates

MARKETING MATERIAL COMMISSIONED BY Enersense

Quarterly estimates by segment SEGMENT ESTIMATES BY QUARTER (EURm; EPS IN EUR)

Q124 Q224 Q324…