Institutional desk Sell-side卖方

Eq Positioning and Key Levels

Aug 17, 202627 pages页

From the report报告摘录CTA Positioning & Flow Expectations: CTA long $140bn global equities ($36bn SPX); $5bn net buying expected if prices/vols stable, with US-focused flows at $5.35B/$4.91B in flat/up tape scenarios.

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

Please see below for a consolidated recap of the various GS positioning metrics.

Summary: 1. CTA Corner: All quiet on the CTA front this week. We anticipate the cohort is long around $140bn of global equities of which $36bn is SPX. With respect to flow forecasts, we anticipate baseline demand will be low. Should prices and vols remain around current levels we anticipate CTAs will buy $5bn of global equities (link). 2. GS PB: Global equities were net bought for a 3rd straight week and saw the largest % net buying in 6 months (+1.6 SDs 1-year), driven by both long buys and to a lesser extent short covers (2.5 to 1). Single Stocks saw the largest net buying in ~5 months (+1.4 SDs 1-year), driven by long buys. Domestically, HFs net bought US equities every day this week and at the second fastest pace in the past year (+2.1 SDs), led by long buys in Single Stocks and to a lesser extent short covers in Macro Products (link, link). 3. Buybacks: Our desk saw robust and steady volumes last week, driven by the ongoing corporate open window. We currently estimate 96% of the S&P 500 are in an open window period. With over $1T in buyback authorizations announced, corporate demand is estimated to remain over the summer, potentially helping absorb supply in an otherwise thin summer liquidity environment (link). 4. Charts in Focus: S&P EPS Growth, US Panic Index, Risk Appetite Indicator, SPX vs. Singles Skew, Call Skew vs. Put Skew, S&P Futures Liquidity, Funding Spreads vs S&P 500, S&P 500 Implied Correlation, SPX Weekly Implied Move, GS Financial Conditions Index (FCI)

CTA Corner • Over the next 1 week... o Flat tape: Buyers $5.35B ($0.73B into the US) o Up tape: Buyers $4.91B ($18mm out of the US) o Down tape: Sellers $9.33B ($1.48B out of the US) • Over the next 1 month… o Flat tape: Buyers $2.47B ($0.51B into the US) o Up tape: Buyers $19.92B ($2.64B into the US)

o Down tape: Sellers $152.57B ($46.21B out of the US) • Key pivot levels for SPX: o Short term: 7566 o Med term: 7298 o Long term: 6807

Data as of 31Jul26. Simulated results are for illustrative purposes only. GS provides no assurance or guarantee that the stra tegy will operate or would have operated in the past in a manner consistent with the above analysis. Past performance figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

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