Euro Area Data Update A Further Easing in Price Related Surveys

Economics Research 28 July 2026 | 12:08PM BST

Euro Area Data Update: A Further Easing in Price-Related Surveys

BOTTOM LINE: Our area-wide Q2 GDP tracking estimate ticked up to +0.29%qoq Giovanni Pierdomenico | (vs. +0.28% previously). We are currently tracking Q2 growth at +0.2%qoq in Goldman Sachs International Germany, France and Italy, and at +0.5%qoq in Spain.

1. In Germany, the details of the ifo survey for July showed an improvement in demand and production activity in the manufacturing sector. The indices of expected selling prices softened in all major sectors. Within the manufacturing sector, expected prices eased in sectors affected by the Middle East crisis (e.g. chemicals and plastics) but firmed up for electronics and electrical equipment.

2. In France, the INSEE consumer survey for July showed a 0.2sd improvement in confidence to 1.2sd below its long-run mean. The index of consumers’ expected price developments declined sharply to a level comparable to February.

3. In Spain, real retail sales rose by 0.3%mom in June (vs. +0.6% in May), reflecting a +1.6% rise in real fuel sales and a more modest +0.2% uptick in non-fuel sales. Today’s data were firmer than our previous assumptions and resulted in a small uptick of our Spanish GDP tracking estimate for Q2 on an unrounded basis. That said, real retail sales remain down on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The LFS quarterly unemployment rate was flat at 10.3% in Q2 (GS SA).

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Exhibit 1: Our EMU4 Tracking Estimate Stands Just Under +0.25%qoq

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Exhibit 2: An Easing in Price Pressures in the ifo July Survey

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, ifo, S&P Global Market Intelligence