Euro Area Data Update Further Improvement in Area Wide Surveys

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 12:34PM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Further Improvement in Area-Wide Surveys

BOTTOM LINE: Our area-wide Q2 GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at Giovanni Pierdomenico | +0.28%qoq. We are currently tracking Q2 growth at +0.2%qoq in Germany, France, Goldman Sachs International and Italy, and at +0.5%qoq in Spain.

More details on today’s PMI releases are available here.

1. In Germany, the composite PMI was firmer than expected at 51.2, vs. 49.5 in June. The improvement was visible in both sectors as services activity rose by 1.0pt to 49.6 and manufacturing output rose by 3.1pt to 54.7, the highest level in more than four years. Composite output prices edged down by 0.2pt to 56.8 (vs. 53.9 in February). The GfK consumer survey for July showed small upticks in economic expectations and consumption propensity and essentially unchanged expected price developments. Construction orders were firm in May, supported by a further rise in civil engineering.

2. In France, composite output improved by 2.4pt to 49.6 in July, above expectations. After calendar effects weighed on the PMIs in May, the composite is now close its February levels. The improvement was driven by the services sector, where the activity index rose 3.0pt to a recent high of 49.8, while manufacturing output ticked down to 48.8. Composite output prices edged down by 0.5pt to 52.9. The improvement in today’s PMIs confirms the positive signal from the INSEE business survey released yesterday.

3. In Spain, hotel overnight stays were soft in June after a firm start to the year. The moderation was driven by nonresidents, possibly suggesting a soft start to the tourist season amid consumer caution and later-than-usual bookings.

4. Turning to area-wide indicators:

n The composite PMI rose by 1.9pt to 51.9 in July, above expectations for a more modest improvement. Services activity rose by 2.2pt to 51.6 while manufacturing output increased by 1.3pt to 53.0, the highest level in more than four years. Composite employment ticked up to 50.3 and new orders also rose to a recent high of 52.2. Composite price components softened further, with output prices edged down by 1.1pt to 54.6 (vs. 53.1 in February and a peak of 57.1). PMI responses were collected between July 9 and July 22. n The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for June showed a moderation of inflation expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations moderated by 0.5pp to 3.0% (vs. 2.5% in February and a peak of 4.0% in March

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and April). Three- and five-year-ahead expectations were broadly unchanged at more modest levels. CES responses were collected between June 4 and June 29. n The ECB’s Corporate Telephone Survey (CTS) suggests that businesses expect a moderation in growth into year-end and that selling prices increased in Q2, albeit less than expected at the time of the previous survey round. Wage growth expectations remained unchanged, pointing to a further cooling in coming months. CTS responses were collected between 22 June and 1 July. n The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q3 showed essentially unchanged 7-quarter-ahead mean headline inflation expectations at 2.0%. Mean core inflation expectations over the same horizon ticked down slightly to 2.1%. n In the flash reading for July, the European Commission consumer confidence measure ticked up further to 1.3sd below its long-run mean (vs. -0.6sd in February).

Exhibit 1: Our EMU4 Tracking Estimate Stands Just Under +0.25%qoq

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat