Euro Area Data Update GDP Tracking Unchanged

Economics Research 13 October 2026 | 10:44AM BST

Euro Area Data Update: GDP Tracking Unchanged; Headline Inflation Nearcast Ticks Up

BOTTOM LINE: At the area-wide level, our tracking estimate was unchanged at Giovanni Pierdomenico | +0.24%qoq. We currently track Q3 GDP growth at +0.19% in Germany, +0.09% in Goldman Sachs International France, +0.02% in Italy (vs. +0.00% previously), and +0.66% in Spain. Our end-2026 headline inflation nearcast rose by 0.10pp to 4.21%yoy (vs. 4.11% previously).

1. In France, the early-October business survey by the Banque de France pointed to modest growth in activity over September, albeit at higher levels than implied by the latest PMIs, and mixed expectations for October. The release noted that business leaders expect an acceleration in industrial production but a slowdown in services activity in October. Some AI capex-exposed sectors, such as production of electrical and computing/electronic equipment, and aeronautics continue to face strong demand but also supply-chain pressures. Consumer demand is weaker, partly reflecting a renewed rise in uncertainty. Input price pressures firmed up but selling prices are rising more modestly. The BdF estimates GDP growth at +0.1%qoq in Q3, in line with our tracking.

2. In Italy, tourist nights spent ticked up sequentially in August after a softer start of the season. On a year-over-year basis, nights spent were up 3.3% in August (up from +0.6% and 1.7% in June and July), reflecting flat resident activity but firmer inflows of foreigners. On net, this resulted in a modest uptick of our GDP tracking estimate to +0.02%qoq (vs. flat previously).

3. Elsewhere, the goods trade balance improved slightly in Portugal but deteriorated slightly in the Netherlands in August.

4. German HICP inflation for September was revised down to +3.26%yoy (vs. +3.30%yoy). Across components, ICT equipment inflation firmed up further to +4.6%yoy while autos inflation was broadly unchanged. Within services, transport services inflation ticked down, food services inflation moved sideways, and accommodation services ticked up slightly. The ECB’s measure of farmgate and wholesale commodity prices was revised up for September, bringing the signal closer to what is observed in food PMIs and PPIs. Together with the rise in energy commodity prices, the data pushed up our end-2026 headline inflation nearcast to 4.21%yoy (vs. 4.11% previously). Our end-2026 core inflation forecast ticked down slightly to 2.64%yoy (vs. +2.65% previously).

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Exhibit 1: Area-Wide Tracking Estimate At +0.24%qoq

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Exhibit 2: Mixed BdF Survey for Early October

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Banque de France, S&P Global Market Intelligence