Euro Area Data Update Mixed Trade Data in Germany and France

Economics Research 8 September 2026 | 9:58AM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Mixed Trade Data in Germany and France

BOTTOM LINE: National trade data resulted in a modest uptick in our German GDP Giovanni Pierdomenico | tracking estimate for Q3 and a small downtick in our French GDP tracking estimate. Goldman Sachs International At the area-wide level, our tracking estimate was essentially unchanged (+0.01pp to +0.18%qoq). We currently track Q3 GDP growth flat in Germany, at +0.12% in France, at +0.17% in Italy, and at +0.56% in Spain.

We reviewed the recent area-wide activity dataflow and launched our detailed Q3 tracking estimate here.

1. In Germany, the nominal goods trade balance rose to EUR 21bn in July (vs. EUR 15bn in June). This largely reflected a meaningful drop in real and nominal imports that more than offset a more modest decline in exports. Across countries, the drop in imports was concentrated among non-European trading partners. On net, this resulted in a modest uptick in our German GDP tracking estimate for Q3 on an unrounded basis (flat, vs. -0.04% previously).

2. In France, the nominal goods trade balance edged down to EUR -7bn in July (vs. EUR -6bn in June), reflecting a rise in imports and broadly unchanged exports. The services trade balance also moderated after rising sharply over May and June. On net, this resulted in a modest downtick in our German GDP tracking estimate. We now track French GDP growth at +0.12%qoq in Q3 (vs. +0.15% previously).

3. Elsewhere, the goods trade balance improved in Austria.

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Exhibit 1: Mixed Trade Data Leave Area-Wide GDP Tracking Broadly Unchanged at +0.18%qoq

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Exhibit 2: Mixed Trade Data in Germany and France

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Destatis, INSEE