Euro Area Data Update Mixed ZEW Survey for September

Economics Research 15 September 2026 | 11:02AM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Mixed ZEW Survey for September

BOTTOM LINE: At the area-wide level, our tracking estimate ticked up to +0.20%qoq Giovanni Pierdomenico | (vs. +0.19% previously). We currently track Q3 GDP growth at +0.02% in Germany, Goldman Sachs International +0.07% in France, +0.19% in Italy, and +0.59% in Spain.

1. In Germany, the ZEW survey for September showed a 0.3sd improvement in the assessment of current conditions to 1.6sd below its long-run mean (vs. -2.0sd in February). The expectations component ticked up further to 1.0sd above its long-run mean (vs. +1.3sd in February).

2. In Italy, the nominal goods trade balance improved in July to EUR 4.7bn (vs. 3.9bn in June), reflecting an improvement in both the energy and non-energy balance. This resulted in a modest uptick of our tracking estimate on an unrounded basis (+0.03pp to +0.19%qoq).

3. Elsewhere, construction output ticked up in Portugal in July.

4. Turning to area-wide indicators, the ZEW survey for September showed a slight uptick in the assessment of current conditions to 0.1sd below its long-run mean (vs. at the long-run mean in February). The expectations component ticked down slightly to +0.5sd (same level as in February). Survey responses were collected between September 7 and September 14. The nominal goods trade balance improved in July to EUR 5.0bn (vs. EUR 1bn in June), largely reflecting an improvement in the balance for energy and raw materials. Exports rose by 1.2%mom, while imports edged down by -0.4%. The economy-wide vacancy rate ticked down by 0.1pp to 2.1% in Q2.

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Exhibit 1: Area-Wide Tracking Estimate Ticks Up +0.20%qoq

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, ZEW