Euro Area German Headline At Consensus; Lowering Our Area Wide Tracking Estimates

Economics Research 30 July 2026 | 1:47PM BST

Euro Area: German Headline At Consensus; Lowering Our Area-Wide Tracking Estimates

BOTTOM LINE: German headline HICP inflation was 2.84%yoy in July, in line with Katya Vashkinskaya | consensus expectations of 2.8%yoy but somewhat lower than 2.9%yoy regional CPI Goldman Sachs International data suggested. Core CPI inflation was reported at 2.36%yoy, down from 2.45%yoy in June. We thus downgrade our estimate for German core HICP to 2.6%yoy (from 2.7%yoy previously). Taking the German national data into account, we lower our Euro area headline inflation forecast for July by 2bp to 2.87%yoy. We also downgrade our Euro area core inflation forecast by 3bp to 2.42%yoy. This would imply seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation of 0.23%mom on our estimates.

For the exclusive use of German Headline HICP Inflation (Flash, July): 2.84%yoy, GS: 2.9%yoy, consensus: 2.8%yoy, last (June): 2.4%yoy.

1. German headline HICP inflation was 2.84%yoy in July, in line with consensus expectations of 2.8%yoy but somewhat lower than 2.9%yoy regional CPI data suggested. CPI details in the press release showed year-on-year energy inflation increasing from 3.4%yoy in June to 8.3%yoy in August, while food inflation stayed unchanged at 0.4%yoy, both close to what the regional print suggested. Services CPI inflation declined to 2.9%yoy, while goods CPI inflation rose to 2.5%yoy in July. Core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) was reported at 2.36%yoy, down from 2.45%yoy in June. It showed a deceleration in seasonally adjusted sequential terms, printing at 0.15%mom in July, down from 0.18%mom in June. We thus downgrade

fce07ef8421611dd87ec0014c24035ec our estimate for German core HICP to 2.6%yoy (from 2.7%yoy previously).

2. Taking the German national data into account, we lower our Euro area headline inflation forecast for July by 2bp to 2.87%yoy. We also downgrade our Euro area core inflation forecast by 3bp to 2.42%yoy. This would imply seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation of 0.23%mom in July using our seasonal adjustment methodology, aimed to closely replicate the ECB’s.

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Exhibit 1: July HICP Tracking Estimates

For the exclusive use of Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics

fce07ef8421611dd87ec0014c24035ec