Europe Paper & Forest Products US Paper Update Containerboard Flat

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 2:17AM BST

Europe Paper & Forest Products: US Paper Update: Containerboard Flat; Boxboard Up $20/t in August

As per RISI’s recent release on Friday (August 21), US containerboard prices were flat Gabriel Simoes | m/m in August. That said, we head into September with high expectations for the Goldman Sachs International implementation of the price increases announced by all large US mills. Georgina Fraser, Ph.D. | Containerboard: all eyes on September. Containerboard prices were flat in August, Goldman Sachs International while all eyes remain on the implementation of the $80-140/st hikes announced by Marcus von Scheele mills for September. Although some corrugators have complained about the speed of | the increases, we still expect to see a decent portion of the price increases being Goldman Sachs International implemented. Our conversations with investors suggest an expectation of around Thomas Ward | half of the hike to show in September numbers, while we are more constructive given Goldman Sachs International the still strong S/D conditions, low inventories and strong seasonal activity of Sep-Dec approaching. We believe an $80/st increase would not be unwarranted. Meghna Ghosh | Goldman Sachs India SPL Boxboard price increases now implemented. In August, we now had the implementation of the remaining $20/st for a total $60/st increase announced by Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS) producers. Although the market for SBS is tight and prices started to increase, the long lead times now match those of imported products (usually cheaper). In our view, further price increases should be necessary to bring down lead times (now at 12-14 weeks). Other grades were flat in August, while price increases were already announced for September for CUK and CRB - which we expect to be implemented at least partially next month.

We highlight SW as the name under our coverage with the highest exposure to North America (c.60% of EBITDA), and we estimate containerboard/box sales represent c.70% of the company’s earnings in the region. We maintain our Buy rating on SW and our relative preference for downstream names under our coverage, which offer a compelling bottom-up story vs. the upstream names that are more exposed to pulp prices.

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Goldman Sachs Europe Paper & Forest Products

US Containerboard Containerboard prices flat m/m in August. Mill backlogs remained unchanged at 5 to 6 weeks in August - implying the market remains strong. All eyes remain on the September numbers, following the price increases of $80-140/st announced by most of the main mills. Several boxmakers criticized the third price increase, mentioning they are still starting to pass through the second $50/st increase implemented on the paper side this month (expected to last until October/November).

We believe the S/D still supports further price increases in September. Despite the criticism to the board price increases, we highlight that corrugators are still seeing decent demand for boxes (some mentioning up 5% y/y), while containerboard inventories are still tight (some mentioning at 80-85% of total inventories in August 2025). In addition, seasonally, we should be heading into the busiest season for corrugators in the US (September-December) which, in our view, justify the price increases announced.

Exhibit 1: US Containerboard Prices were flat in August US Containerboard Prices ($/st)

Kraftliner - US East Testliner - US East

1,100 1,050 1, Aug/18 Nov/18 Feb/19 May/19 Aug/19 Nov/19 Feb/20 May/20 Aug/20 Nov/20 Feb/21 May/21 Aug/21 Nov/21 Feb/22 May/22 Aug/22 Nov/22 Feb/23 May/23 Aug/23 Nov/23 Feb/24 May/24 Aug/24 Nov/24 Feb/25…