European Economics Analyst France—Modelling the 2027 Elections

Economics Research 11 August 2026 | 1:37PM CEST

France—Modelling the 2027 Elections

n France will hold its next presidential elections on April 18 and May 2, 2027, and Alexandre Stott | voters will then likely be called to renew the lower chamber of Parliament in early Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris legislative elections. The outcome of these elections is the key source of Branch

uncertainty in France’s economic outlook, as it will determine the trajectory of fiscal policy, the scope for structural reforms, and the country’s stance towards Europe. n We therefore construct a new poll-based statistical model to estimate the probability of key candidates winning the presidential election and then securing a majority in Parliament. Our model runs a large number of stochastic simulations in which vote shares are drawn at random from a distribution based on the following assumptions: polls give a fair assessment of a candidate’s vote share in the presidential election (unless we find evidence of a systematic bias); vote shares in the presidential election can be used to predict shares in the legislative election; and other relevant parameters (such as party coalitions, voter turnout, and withdrawal strategies in the legislative election) are in line with historical patterns. n Our polls-based simulations suggest that far-right leader Marine Le Pen currently has a 68% probability of winning the presidential election, given she is far ahead in first-round voting intentions and is predicted to win against all opponents in the second round. Our model indicates that former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon are equally likely to qualify to the second round, with a 35% probability each. But our model suggests that Le Pen’s chances of winning the second round would differ markedly depending on her opponent: she is projected to win in 95% of run-offs against Mélenchon (whom she leads by 40pp in second-round polls) but only in 51% of cases against Philippe (because polls have historically overstated Le Pen’s performance against centrist candidates). n Our model suggests that, conditional on Le Pen becoming President, far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) would have a 56% chance of winning an absolute majority in the subsequent legislative election and a 24% probability of relying on the centre-right to form a coalition government, with the remaining 19% odds corresponding to a hung Parliament with no workable majority. Our model suggests that the probability of facing a hung Parliament would be even higher if Philippe were to become President, as his party would likely trail behind

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Goldman Sachs European Economics Analyst

the far-right and the left—which we assume will run as a coalition, as it did in 2022 and 2024—in most constituencies. n Taken together, our analysis suggests that the most likely outcome for next year’s elections currently is for Le Pen to win the presidency and obtain a majority in Parliament, to which our model assigns a 39% probability. Another probable outcome—with a 26% probability in our model—is a hung Parliament regardless of who becomes President. In contrast, our model suggests a relatively limited probability, at 14%, that a President from the centre-left to the centre-right will win a majority, and that the likelihood of Mélenchon winning the presidency and securing a majority is even smaller, at 3%. n We therefore think that market participants should closely scrutinise Le Pen’s proposals on the economy and regarding Europe, and we continue to believe that investors should carefully consider the economic and fiscal implications of the continuation of a hung Parliament.