European Week Ahead August 17 August 23

Economics Research 16 August 2026 | 5:14AM BST

European Week Ahead: August 17 - August 23

The key data releases this week are UK unemployment and CPI inflation; Euro area final core Sven Jari Stehn | inflation; the Riksbank policy-rate decision; UK retail sales; and flash PMIs for France, Goldman Sachs International

Germany, the euro area and the UK. Filippo Taddei | Goldman Sachs International

Euro Area Alexandre Stott | Monday, 17 August 2026 Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch 11:30 ECB’s Lane speaks James Moberly | Mr Lane participates in a panel on Europe’s defence build-up at the Annual Congress Goldman Sachs International of the European Economic Association. Niklas Garnadt | Tuesday 18 August Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE

10:00 German ZEW Survey Current Situation, Aug (consensus -69.0, last -77.6) Katya Vashkinskaya | 10:00 Euro Area ZEW Survey Expectations, Aug (last 23.4) Goldman Sachs International

Giovanni Pierdomenico 10:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations, Aug (consensus 30.0, last 26.3) | Goldman Sachs International 13:45 ECB’s Lane speaks

Mr Lane participates in the EEA-ECB panel, “Monetary Policy in a Geopolitically Fragmented World”, at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association.

Wednesday 19 August 09:10 ECB’s Lagarde speaks

Ms Lagarde participates in a panel discussion titled “Global Economic Outlook” at the World Economic Forum’s International Business Council meeting.

10:00 Euro Area HICP Core YoY, Jul F (GS 2.5%yoy, consensus 2.5%yoy, last 2.5%yoy)

10:00 Euro Area HICP YoY, Jul F (GS 2.9%yoy, consensus 2.9%yoy, last 2.9%yoy)

10:00 Euro Area Labour Costs YoY, 2Q P (last 3.2%yoy)

Thursday 20 August 07:00 German PPI YoY, Jul (consensus 2.3%yoy, last 1.8%yoy)

07:00 German Federal Spending, Jul (GS EUR 53.3bn, last EUR 44.5bn)

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Goldman Sachs European Week Ahead

We expect spending of EUR 48.6bn in the main budget, EUR 1.5bn in the military fund and EUR 3.2bn in the infrastructure and climate fund.

10:00 Euro Area Construction Output MoM, Jun (last 0.4%mom)

Friday 21 August 07:45 French Business Confidence, Aug (consensus 98.0, last 97.0)

07:45 French Manufacturing Confidence, Aug (consensus 101.0, last 101.0)

08:15 French Composite PMI, Aug P (GS 49.4, consensus 49.0, last 49.4)

08:15 French Manufacturing PMI, Aug P (GS 50.5, consensus 50.0, last 49.8)

08:15 French Services PMI, Aug P (GS 49.4, consensus 49.4, last 49.6)

08:30 German Composite PMI, Aug P (GS 51.3, consensus 51.3, last 51.3)

08:30 German Manufacturing PMI, Aug P (GS 52.1, consensus 52.0, last 52.2)

08:30 German Services PMI, Aug P (GS 50.0, consensus 50.1, last 49.8)

09:00 Euro Area Composite PMI, Aug P (GS 51.8, consensus 51.6, last 52.0)

09:00 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI, Aug P (GS 51.8, consensus 51.7, last 51.9)

09:00 Euro Area Services PMI, Aug P (GS 51.5, consensus 51.5, last 51.7)

We expect the upcoming Euro area flash composite PMI to be essentially unchanged at 51.8 (vs. 52.0 in August). Across components, we look for a slight tickdown in both sectors reflecting a moderation in consumer sentiment in early August and a normalization of manufacturing activity (notably in Germany) after a strong July. We expect the composite to be little changed across major economies.

15:00 Euro Area Consumer Confidence, Aug P (consensus -16.2, last -15.9)

United Kingdom Tuesday 18 August 07:00 ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths, Jun (GS 4.8%, consensus 4.8%, last 4.9%)

07:00 Payrolled Employees Monthly Change, Jul (GS 0k, consensus 0k, last -4k)

07:00 Employment Change 3M/3M, Jun (consensus 120k, last 148k)

07:00 Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY, Jun (GS 3.4%3m/yoy, consensus 3.4%3m/yoy, last 3.4%3m/yoy)

07:00 Private Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY, Jun (GS 2.8%3m/yoy, consensus 2.8%3m/yoy, last 2.9%3m/yoy)

07:00 Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY, Jun (GS 3.9%3m/yoy, consensus 4.0%3m/yoy, last 4.3%3m/yoy)

Next week’s labour market figures are likely to show the unemployment rate dropping by a tenth to 4.8% on technical factors, in line with the BoE’s estimate. We expect a further