Fibra Prologis (FIBRAPL14.MX) 2Q26 Earnings First Take A Soft Quarter, with Key Fundamentals Slowdown

Equity Research 23 July 2026 | 9:23PM BRT

Fibra Prologis (FIBRAPL14.MX): 2Q26 Earnings First Take: A Soft Quarter, with Key Fundamentals Slowdown

Our Take: We expect a neutral to negative reaction for Fibra Prologis CBFIs following Jorel Guilloty | results which showed slight income statement misses and softening fundamentals. Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Versus GS, the company missed on rental revenue (-3%), EBITDA (-2%), and FFO Igor Machado (-6%); versus BBG consensus, total revenue beat by 2% and EBITDA was in line. Key | fundamental metrics -while still elevated - slowed or declined. Cash lease spreads fell Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

to 25.5%, the lowest since 3Q25 and down ~10pp q/q. Customer retention dropped to 60% (~80% last quarter), and core portfolio occupancy declined 120bps q/q to 95.8%, below the 96.5% to 98.5% YE26 guidance. There was a notable 330 bps q/q decline in key market Mexico City, suggesting a meaningful moveout considering Mexico City size as FIBRAPL’s largest market by GLA (28%). On tomorrow’s call, we’ll focus on whether this softness marks an emerging trend or a one-off.

Material differences vs our model: Rental revenues came 3% below our estimates (US$157 mm vs GSe at US$161 mm) on lower than expected occupancy rates (96.2% vs GSe 97.0%) and lower rent per sqm (US$ 6.7 vs GSe US$ 6.9). Operating Expenses were higher than we expected (US$-20.1 mm vs GSe US$-16.0 mm).

Fundamentals trends: We saw negative occupancy trends for Fibra Prologis markets as Mexico City (35% of total lease rental income and 30% of total GLA) saw a 330bps q/q decrease to 93.5%. Guadalajara saw a 50bps decrease to 98.5%. Excluding Tijuana (+120 bps q/q to 97.4%) the other markets saw flat occupancy rates. We note that cash lease spreads at 25.5% is 10pp below last quarter.

Financials: Revenues at US$177.0 mm came in-line with our estimate while Rental revenues were -3% below (US$157.0 mm vs our US$161.2 mm estimate). Total revenue came in 2% above BBG consensus (GSe US$177.3 mm and Consensus at US$173.4 mm). EBITDA came in at US$135.2 mm, -2% below our estimate on higher than expected operating expenses (US$-20.1 mm vs GSe US$-16.0 mm). EBITDA came in-line with BBG at US$134.6 mm. FFO at US$105.2 mm came in -6% below GSe at US$112.0 mm driven by higher than expected financial expenses (US$-30.6 mm vs our US$-29.1 mm estimate) and losses on equity investments.

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Goldman Sachs Fibra Prologis (FIBRAPL14.MX)

Exhibit 1: Fibra Prologis Earnings Table GS Actual Consensus Actual 2Q26A 2Q26E vs GS vs 2Q25 Y/Y 1Q26 Q/Q In USD$ mn Cons. Total Revenue % 173.4 2% 159.7 11% 178.3 -1% Rental Revenue % 146.6 7% 158.1 -1%

Operating Expenses (20.1) (16.0) 26% (17.3) 16% (15.6) 29%

Property NOI % 135.2 9% 153.1 -4%

Asset Management Fees (14.7) (15.2) -3% (13.4) 10% (14.3) 2%

Professional Fees (2.1) (2.9) NM (3.1) -33% (2.9) -29%

EBITDA % 134.6 0% 120.9 12% 140.0 -3% % margin (diff. in bps) 76% 78% -129 78% -122 76% 68 79% -218

Financial Revenue 0.7 0.7 6% 0.9 -15% 0.6 21%

Financial Expenses (30.6) (29.1) 5% (26.3) 17% (31.2) -2%

FFO % 90.4 16% 108.9 -3% % margin (diff. in bps) 59% 63% -371 57% 284 61% -162

Key operational metrics Occupancy rate (diff. in bps) 96.2% 97.0% -86 96.5% -37 97.0% -86 Rent per Sqm (USD) 6.7 6.9 -2.4% 6.2 7% 6.7 -0.7% GLA (000s sqm) 8,114 8,077 0% 8,083 0% 8,077 0% Source: Company reports, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

Valuation Methodology and Key Risks

Fibra Prologis (Buy, 12-month price target: P$85) - We are Buy-rated on Fibra Prologis (FIBRAPL14.MX) with a 12-month price target of P$85 based on a DCF analysis. We use an 11.9% cost of equity, 4.5% post tax cost of debt…