Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2026 — Key Takeaways

Equity Research 15 September 2026 | 8:54PM EDT

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND): Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2026 — Key Takeaways

Kate McShane, CFA | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Nishi Agarwal | Goldman Sachs India SPL Presenters: We hosted Bradley Paulsen (President) and Bryan Langley (EVP & CFO) Mark Jordan, CFA from Floor and Decor Holdings, at the 33rd Annual Global Retail Conference. | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Bottom Line: The company noted that business trends have been steadily improving Emily Ghosh across regions, and they continue to take market share in key categories like tile and | wood. While management acknowledged ongoing headwinds from LVT oversupply Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and elevated freight costs, they are successfully utilizing tariff refunds to offset Grace Chee | margin pressures. Additionally, management emphasized the importance of the Pro Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC customer in the current environment, highlighted by plans to launch a revamped, Samantha Chiang discount-driven Pro loyalty program in 2027 to drive volume and share of wallet. | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Regional trends: Management noted that trends have been steadily improving. From a geographic perspective, the West region had previously been leading the charge, but the company is now seeing strength across the West, East, and South, with Florida and Texas highlighted as specific areas of focus within the South. The company felt good about sequential improvement in May and June. A bumpy July (impacted by Father’s Day timing, weather, and the World Cup) was viewed as a temporary blip rather than a continuing trend. n Category performance: The company highlighted that tile remains their largest category and they continue to take market share, building a moat through exclusive collections that they commit to carrying for extended periods. Wood is the fastest-growing category in 2026 and continues to be a strong growth driver. Management also noted a successful test of outdoor assortments in over 100 stores, which appeals to a different Pro and expands their TAM. n LVT: Management cited oversupply as the biggest issue in the laminate/vinyl (LVT) category, which they expect to run its course through 2027 (assuming another 8-9 months). The category saw a negative comp in 2Q, pressured by a

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Goldman Sachs Floor & Decor Holdings (FND)

lack of large jobs and a devaluing of the category. n Margins: Management noted that freight and supply chain costs, which flow entirely through COGS, are having a material impact. However, FND is utilizing tariff refunds to offset these cost inflations. Management expects potential continued pressure into 2027, though they see opportunities to drive SG&A efficiencies and better manage store labor. n Pro Loyalty Program: The company emphasized that winning in this environment will be driven by the Pro customer. The company is testing a revamped Pro loyalty program in the second half of the year, with a full launch planned for 2027 and acceleration expected in 2028. While this investment may put slight pressure on gross margin rates, management expects it to drive higher volumes and increase share of wallet.

We are Neutral rated on FND with a 12-month price target of $53 based on our downside/base/upside case relative P/E multiples of 90%/100%/105%.

Upside risks: the potential that housing turnover could recover faster than expected; FND could gain market share, offsetting a portion of the sales pressures due to the expected decline in industry-wide demand; and the potential for management to effectively manage costs allowing for EPS to be better than anticipated.

Downside risks include an extended…