Fwd Curves and Spot Margins Climb Lead by MidCon

Equity Research Global | Refining & Marketing August 15, 2026

Fwd Curves and Spot Margins Climb Lead by MidCon Spot refining margins were up week on week. Forward curves were also up week on week and y/y. See Ex 1.

• Jefferies Global Composite 4-Wk Moving Average margin was up 2% w/w.

• USGC Cushing 321 margin was up 8% w/w.

• WC ANS 321 margin was up 3% w/w.

• Mid-Con 321 margin was up 18% w/w.

• NWE Dated Brent GC 321 margin was up 9% w/w.

• Asia Minas 321 margin was up 11% w/w.

PLEASE ACCESS THE FULL REPORT VIA THE LINK BELOW FOR DETAILED SLIDES AND GRAPHICS

We use our proprietary JEF data on US gas stations foot traffic (Ex 7-8); the data shows a ~4% y/y decrease and a ~2.4% rolling-3-month y/y decline for the month of May.

Exhibit 1 - Crack Spreads Summary Cracks 8/14/2026 1-Week % ∆ WoW QTD Avg % ∆ QoQ % ∆ YoY % ∆ vs 5-Yr Avg GC WTI Cushing 321 $63.11 $58.60 8% $60.95 28.1% 164.6% 132.8% WC ANS 321 $70.74 $68.73 3% $69.65 51.0% 135.0% 112.9% GC WTS 321 $64.67 $59.65 8% $62.47 28.2% 170.0% 136.1% GC WTI Midland 321 $62.30 $58.17 7% $60.31 31.0% 169.9% 139.5% Mid-Con 321 $67.90 $57.72 18% $56.30 47.6% 145.9% 129.8% GC WCS 321 $80.81 $74.84 8% $77.18 13.8% 116.9% 75.4% Brent GC 321 $6.34 $9.32 -32% $12.88 -289.4% -56.1% -37.7% RBOB Gasoline - WTI Crack Spread Front Month $40.67 $38.22 6% $46.22 5.8% 130.9% 83.1% GC Gasoline - WTI Crack Spread Front Month $42.35 $40.74 4% $45.35 15.0% 118.4% 96.3% GC ULSD - WTI Crack Spread Front Month $89.67 $80.30 12% $79.05 32.6% 157.8% 124.6% Brent GC ULSD Crack Spread Front Month $84.57 $73.83 15% $73.37 34.0% 168.7% 135.2% NW Europe Dated Brent GC 321 $58.08 $53.07 9% $56.81 23.8% 189.3% 159.9% Asia Tapis 321 $31.85 $28.54 12% $26.10 15.1% 152.7% 159.7% Asia Minas 321 $37.78 $34.05 11% $34.52 2.2% 163.6% 117.6% TOCOM 321 Forward 1 Month $21.83 $28.48 -23% $23.70 56.8% 25.9% 102.1% WTI Cushing 321 Forward 1 Month $66.26 $60.09 10% $62.80 27.2% 145.8% 108.7% WTI Cushing 321 Forward 3 Months $52.88 $48.87 8% $49.84 7.3% 125.3% 76.8% WTI Cushing 321 Forward 6 Months $45.32 $42.43 7% $41.08 11.3% 89.8% 56.3% WTI Cushing 321 Average Forward (1-3-6 Month) $54.82 $50.46 9% $51.24 15.8% 121.8% 81.8% . Jefferies Global Composite (4-Wk MA)* $48.17 $47.39 2% $46.23 15.6% 169.9% 132.4% Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies. Note: QoQ/YoY% changes are vs current QTD average. Jefferies Global Composite based on weighted averages for Asia Minas, USGC WTI, and Brent-USGC crack spreads weighted by region (53% AP, 27% NA, 20% NWE). Exhibit 2 - US Gulf Coast WTI Cushing Crude Oil 321 Crack Spread 70

Crack Spread ($/bbl) Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst 50 |

40 Emma Schwartz * | Equity Analyst | 30 Cecilia Tang * | Equity Associate | 20 Sam Burwell, CFA * | Equity Analyst 10 |

John Edelman * | Equity Analyst 0 | Weeks Rahul Kakkar * | Equity Analyst 5-Yr Range , -Yr Avg , | . Source: Bloomberg Spencer Duryee, CFA * | Equity Associate |

Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 50 - 56 of this report. * Jefferies LLC / Jefferies Research Services, LLC

Refining & Marketing Equity Research August 15, 2026

Exhibit 3 - Bloomberg Fair Value Price/RBOB Gasoline-WTI Crude Oil Crack Spread Exhibit 4 - Bloomberg Fair Value US Gulf Coast Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel WTI Crack Month 1 Month

Crack Spread ($/bbl) Crack Spread ($/bbl)

Weeks Weeks . 5-Yr Range , -Yr Avg , -Yr Range , -Yr Avg , Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 5 - Asia Minas Crude Oil 321 Crack Spread Exhibit 6 - Northwest Europe Dated Brent Crude Oil Gulf Coast 321 Crack Spread 60 70

Crack Spread ($/bbl) Crack Spread ($/bbl)

. 5-Yr Range , -Yr Avg , -Yr Range , -Yr Avg , Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 7 - Gas Station_Rolling3MYoYFootTraffic Exhibit 8 - Gas Station_YoYFootTraffic 5% 4%

-4% -8% Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 Sep-25 Mar-26 Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 Sep-25 Mar-26 . . Source: Placer, Jefferies Data Intelligence. Source: Placer, Jefferies Data Intelligence. Exhibit 9 - Composite Crack Spreads (W/W, 1-yr Avg, 3-yr Avg, 5-yr Avg) This weeks margins compared to…

8/14/2026 8/7/2026 8/14/2025 3-Yr Avg 5-Yr Avg Weekly Year Ago 3-Yr Avg 5-Yr Avg Margin East…