G10 Consumer Dashboard July 2026 Spending Growth Edges Higher

Economics Research 30 July 2026 | 11:07PM BST

G10 Consumer Dashboard: July 2026: Spending Growth Edges Higher

n We update our G10 consumer dashboard through June. G10 consumers Megan Peters | generally continue to benefit from healthy balance sheets, but sentiment remains Goldman Sachs International subdued (despite a rebound following the US-Iran deal), and higher energy prices are eroding real incomes in North America and Western Europe. n Household balance sheets remain strong. Household net worth as a share of income stands close to all-time highs in Japan and Australia, is around percentile 95 (P95) in the US, and around P90 in Canada and the Euro area, and stands around P55 in the UK. Since we last published the dashboard, real net worth growth slowed to P30 in the Euro area and improved slightly to P30 in the UK but was little changed elsewhere, standing at P90 in Japan, P55 in Australia and the US and P35 in Canada. n Consumer sentiment improved from low levels across DMs in July on the back of lower energy prices. In the US, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment improved more than expected in July to 54.4 (vs. 49.5 in June), although the release noted that “Interviews for this release spanned June 23 to July 13, with more than 70% completed before the resumption of US strikes against Iran on July 7 and the subsequent increase in gas prices.” In Australia, consumer sentiment improved to 83.9 in July (vs. 80.6)—driven by improvements in the current and future family finances sub-components, which offset worse sentiment toward housing—but remains 17% below its historical average. The release noted “a significant weakening as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated over the course of the survey week.” n Real income growth is subdued at just P10 in the US (partly reflecting policy-induced swings and lower immigration which have exaggerated the slowdown), P25 in the UK and Canada and P40 in the Euro area, reflecting the drag from higher energy prices. Real income growth is firmer in Australia (P75) and Japan (P95), where government price control measures have limited the impact of the energy shock. In Japan, basic wage growth for all workers slowed to 3.0% in May (vs. +3.3% in April) but remains elevated. In the UK, year-over-year private sector regular pay growth was unchanged at 2.9% in May. n Since we last published the dashboard, real spending growth improved in Japan (P85), the Euro area (P65), Canada (P55) and the US (P35), and was unchanged in Australia (P25). In the US, real spending rose 0.4% in June, corresponding to a healthy 2.5% six-month annualized pace. Although real spending growth has remained resilient, due in part to an outsized boost from OBBBA-related tax cuts

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Goldman Sachs G10 Consumer Dashboard

and tailwinds from World Cup-related spending, we expect a slowdown to just 1.5% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis as higher energy costs weigh on real incomes. Our Australia economics team also anticipates a deterioration in spending growth on the back of lower house prices and soft real income growth. n Consumers continue to benefit from healthy labor markets in the Euro area, Australia, and Japan, but the labor market is still notably weaker in the UK. The unemployment rate is close to its historical low in the Euro area (6.3%), Japan (2.5%), and Australia (4.4%) but stands around P70 in the US (4.2%), P50 in Canada (6.5%) and P30 in the UK (4.9% 3mma). Since we last published the dashboard, the unemployment rate edged down by 0.1pp in the US and Canada and moved sideways elsewhere. n Debt service ratios remain low by historical standards in the US (P75) and the Euro area (P65), are in line with historical averages in Japan (P50) and are higher in Canada (P20), Australia (P35), and the UK (P45). House prices show signs of stabilizing in Canada (Exhibit 16) after trending downwards since 2022. Outstanding mortgage debt growth remains above its historical averages in Asia, while household credit…