GCC Energy Mapping export strength into year end earnings delivery

Equity Research 13 October 2026 | 8:01AM GST

Mapping export strength into year-end earnings delivery; screening for 3Q/2H upside on improving regional throughput

In this note, we assess market focus areas for the GCC energy names, track and Faisal AlAzmeh, CFA | comment on 3Q26 proxy vessel and shipment data, and update our numbers ahead Goldman Sachs International of the upcoming earnings season. We reflect on and mark-to-market for TCE rates, Michele Della Vigna, CFA LPG prices, choke point transit trends, rig deployment/production activity, and | sector-wide valuation trends. Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch

We continue to receive both investor and management feedback suggesting that the key Swarnilee Patra | market debate within GCC energy has shifted toward how improving export activity, freight Goldman Sachs India SPL conditions, and regional production resilience can convert into earnings upside into year-end and have a beneficial medium-term read-across. We think that market-linked Fadi Bataineh | exposures, export optionality, and near-term commodity linkage will be foundational to Goldman Sachs International near-term earnings dispersion across the GCC energy space into year-end. Roman Reshetnev | n ADNOC L&S and ADNOC Gas: We believe investors are increasingly focused on Goldman Sachs International the earnings leverage available from improving physical activity across regional energy markets, as stronger tanker markets support a constructive set-up for AL&S into 3Q26. We see attention shifting toward the pace of recovery in ETL and LNG activities as export flows gradually improve; this, in our view, will be the main focus area for ADG, while the domestic business provides downside risk protection. n For Saudi Aramco, we believe the key debate into 3Q26 is less about absolute production volumes and more about earnings mix, export execution and cash conversion. While export recovery appears increasingly visible through a combination of alternative routing avenues, inventory management and refining activity, we think investors are likely to focus on whether stronger refining and gas contributions can continue to offset a more mixed upstream backdrop. n For the drillers, we think 3Q phasing discipline matters more than immediate upside. KSA names received contract awards and resumed rig activity, though we expect a meaningful portion of the earnings benefit to be weighted toward 4Q26 and FY27 rather than being fully reflected within reported 3Q26 results. Meanwhile, ADNOC Drilling’s exposure to UAE growth projects, island rig deployment, international expansion, and unconventional phasing activity supports a stable contracted outlook into YE26.

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The market’s focus into 3Q26 no longer reflects a debate over whether GCC producers can absorb the disruption, but rather how much near-term earnings leverage can translate into upside in an already attractive medium-term operational environment, particularly as transitory disruptions ease in brief windows. We believe market conditions during the quarter saw early signs of gradual normalization in GCC energy flows, in addition to tight freight markets that remained supportive relative to historical averages.

Across our energy coverage, earnings profiles screen relatively well against downside risk into 2H26. Our conversations with investors increasingly suggest that the market debate around year-end performance has shifted to an assessment of the magnitude of spot-linked performance that can surprise to the upside in the near term, while being incremental for names with already attractive medium-term growth and earnings outlooks. We believe AL&S…