Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD)

Equity Research 28 July 2026 | 7:50PM AEST

Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD.AX): FY27 standalone outlook in-line; Standalone & MergeCo at discounts to peers; Buy

GMD pre-reported group Jun-Q gold production of ~71koz with cash costs of Hugo Nicolaci | A$2,535/oz above market expectations on unfavourable inventory charges, though Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd an AISC of A$2,797/oz below GSe supported by sustaining spend timing. Record Paul Young FY26 production of 285koz was towards the top end of guidance, with an AISC of | A$2,670/oz broadly in-line. GMD finished FY26 with cash of ~A$489mn and total Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

liquidity of ~A$589mn, achieving an FY26 NPAT of A$540-550mn (unaudited). Marcus Dosanjh | Standalone FY27 production guidance of 270-290koz (flat YoY) and group AISC Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd of A$2,750-3,050/oz were both in-line with GSe (though costs slightly above Visible Alpha Consensus Data). FY27 growth capex guidance of A$380-420mn was in-line and includes ~A$140mn for Tower Hill mill construction (removed post VAU merger; we assume ~A$30mn of sunk capital in 1H). Exploration of ~A$80-90mn is unchanged. GMD reiterated an FY26 catch-up payment of ~A$110-140mn in the Dec-26 Q.

GMD reaffirmed a strategic review and new plan is targeted for 1H CY27 to better outline a combined outlook post completion of the proposed VAU merger, including production uplifts/LoM extensions, capex savings, mine plan optimisations, and potential non-core divestments. On our illustrative MergeCo scenario analysis, we continue to see the merger as potentially accretive with MergeCo lifting gold production by ~30-80kozpa to ~690-780kozpa over FY27-28E vs. a pro forma of our baseline GMD/VAU outlooks with a ~10% lower AISC of ~A$2,850/oz, and an EBITDA lift of ~15-25% over the same period. Together with a more capital-light MergeCo pathway, our analysis implies operating FCF yields increasing +5-10% to ~10-15% on average near-term with scope for growing capital returns. We note while MergeCo has a ~4% production CAGR from FY26-31E, the core Leonora-Laverton hub has a ~16% production CAGR over the same period.

We further outline the relative outlook and valuation of both GMD standalone and MergeCo vs. peers in exhibits within, noting that vs. Australian large caps MergeCo is trading at a discount at ~5x FY27E EV/EBITDA, <0.8xNAV, and implying ~US$3,210/oz LT gold (vs. large caps peer average of ~7x, 0.85x, and ~US$3,430/oz respectively). On our standalone ASPIRE 500 outlook, GMD is trading at a discount at ~0.80x NAV or pricing ~US$3,360/oz gold (peer average ~0.8x NAV and ~US$3,250/oz), assuming further elevated capex and opex, where ~10-25% FCF yields from FY30E following near-term investment remain attractive vs. peers. We remain Buy rated.

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Goldman Sachs Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD.AX)

Exhibit 1: While MergeCo has modest group level Exhibit 2: ...the Leonora-Laverton hub has a ~16% CAGR production growth (including declining/non-core assets) to FY31E vs. large caps... Mid-caps gold Eq production (koz Au Eq; equity share); CAGR Large-caps gold Eq production (koz Au Eq; equity share); CAGR FY26-31E FY26-31E

9,000 koz Au Eq By-products 900 koz Au Eq By-products 8,000 800 4% 3% 7,000 700 6,000 600 22% 12% 6% 5,000 500 5% 29% 5% 0% 4,000 400 3,000 10% 300 8% 2,000 200 13% 5% 4% 1,000 100 0 FY25 FY26E 0 FY25 FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E FY31E FY27E FY29E FY31E FY26E FY28E FY30E FY25 FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY29E FY31E FY26E FY28E FY30E FY25 FY27E FY29E FY30E FY31E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY31E FY26E FY28E FY30E FY25 FY27E FY29E FY31E FY28E FY29E FY30E FY31E FY25 FY26E FY28E FY30E FY25 FY27E FY29E FY31E…