Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD)

Equity Research 20 August 2026 | 6:41PM AEST

Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD.AX) FY26 in-line, maiden dividend ahead of expectations; Buy

GMD.AX 12m Price Target: A$8.00 Price: A$8.01 Downside: 0.1% BUY Hugo Nicolaci GMD reported underlying EBITDA of ~A$952mn, up ~109% vs. PcP | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and in-line with market expectations, with an EBITDA margin of Paul Young ~55% (up from ~49% in FY25). Underlying NPAT of ~A$547mn was | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd also in-line with the pre-reported range of A$540-550mn. As originally announced at the 4Q, FY27 standalone guidance remains Marcus Dosanjh | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd unchanged at 270-290koz and AISC of A$2,750-3,050/oz.

GMD finished FY26 with cash of ~A$488mn and total liquidity of Key Data _____________________________________ ~A$589mn (largely pre-reported) for net cash of ~A$202mn incl. Market cap: A$9.6bn / $6.9bn Enterprise value: A$9.7bn / $6.9bn asset finance liabilities of ~A$87mn. A maiden dividend of A5cps 3m ADTV: A$41.6mn / $29.2mn Australia was declared, earlier than our prior expectations, reflecting the ANZ Other Metals & Gold strength of the business, with the scheme merger with VAU M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes commensurately increasing the cash component of the offer to GS Forecast __________________________________ offset the dividend. The long-term strategic plan will also include a 6/26 6/27E 6/28E 6/29E

formal dividend policy as part of a broader capital management Revenue (A$ mn) New Revenue (A$ mn) Old 1,742.3 1,740.1 1,685.5 1,685.5 1,799.8 1,799.8 2,583.0 2,583.0 framework for the merged business. EBITDA (A$ mn) ,381.7 EPS (A$) New EPS (A$) Old A strategic review and new plan remains targeted for 1H CY27 to FCF yield (%) 2.5 (1.1) (0.7) 5.0 better outline a combined outlook post completion of the proposed Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.7 1.3 2.6 EV/EBITDA (X) VAU merger, including production uplifts/LoM extensions, capex ROCE (%) savings, mine plan optimisations, and potential non-core 6/26 12/26E 6/27E 12/27E divestments. On our illustrative MergeCo scenario analysis, we EPS (A$)

continue to see the merger as potentially accretive with MergeCo GS Factor Profile ______________________________ lifting gold production by ~30-80kozpa to ~690-780kozpa over Growth

FY27-28E vs. a pro forma of our baseline GMD/VAU outlooks with a Financial Returns

~10% lower AISC of ~A$2,850/oz, and an EBITDA lift of ~15-25% Multiple over the same period. Together with a more capital-light MergeCo pathway, our analysis implies operating FCF yields increasing Integrated

+5-10% to ~10-15% on average near-term with scope for Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th growing capital returns. We note while MergeCo has a ~4% production CAGR from FY26-31E, the core Leonora-Laverton hub GMD.AX relative to Australia & New Zealand Coverage GMD.AX relative to ANZ Other Metals & Gold has a ~16% production CAGR over the same period. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. We outline the relative outlook and valuation of both GMD

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD.AX)

Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD.AX) Income Statement (A$ mn) _________________________________ BUY Rating since Jul 20, 2026 6/26 6/27E 6/28E 6/29E Total revenue 1,742.3 1,685.5 1,799.8 2,583.0 Cost of goods sold ( ,107.3) SG&A (9.3) -- -- -- Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ R&D -- -- -- -- 6/26 6/27E 6/28E 6/29E Other operating inc./(exp.) 0.0 -- -- -- P/E (X) EBITDA ,381.7 P/B (X) 3.4 4.0 3.4 2.8 Depreciation & amortization ( ) FCF yield (%) 2.5 (1.1) (0.7) 5.0 EBIT ,024.8 EV/EBITDAR (X) Net interest…