Global Healthcare Pharmaceuticals The Obesity Evolution GLP 1 Prescription Trends Point to Early Tailwind from Medicare Un...

Equity Research 3 August 2026 | 9:50AM EDT

GLOBAL HEALTHCARE: PHARMACEUTICALS

The Obesity Evolution: GLP-1 Prescription Trends Point to Early Tailwind from Medicare Unlock

Roughly one-month into the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program which started on July Asad Haider, CFA | 1st, 2026, we take stock of GLP-1 prescription trends to monitor its impact. Recall Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

that through this program, beneficiaries can get Medicare coverage of GLP-1s for James Quigley | obesity — Novo’s Wegovy (in both injectable and oral form) and LLY’s Zepbound Goldman Sachs International Kwikpen and Foundayo oral pill — for a $50/month copay. The launch of this program represents an unprecedented volume unlock for the anti-obesity Jeff Su | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC medication (AOM) market by removing the historical statutory barrier that prevented Medicare from covering drugs exclusively for weight loss. Both LLY and NVO have Nick Jennings | said that the early uptake in this program will be gradual given logistical hurdles Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (need for prior authorization, patient/physician awareness, etc.) though volume Theodora Rowe Beadle tailwinds will build over time, which is consistent with our modeling assumptions and | recent physician survey on expectations for Medicare uptake (see here). Goldman Sachs International

Based on prescription data, there has been a clear inflection in obesity prescription volume where both total TRx and NBRx growth has accelerated and reached all-time high. As of the week ending in 7/24/2026, across Zepbound (pen + vials), Wegovy Injectable, Wegovy Pill, and Foundayo, total weekly TRx/NBRx reached ~1.25mn/~199k and is now ~8%/49% higher vs. 4-week-average prior to the Medicare unlock.

On a share basis, we are seeing the most significant inflection in LLY’s Zepbound Kwikpen, consistent with our recent obesity model update, where we had expected Zepbound Kwikpen to accrue the most share due to Medicare being primarily a physician driven market, with physicians more focused on efficacy, where Zepbound has a key advantage. This is also consistent with our recent KOL survey where physicians on average expect Zepbound Kwikpen to command the highest share (44%), followed by Novo’s Wegovy pen (27%), Novo’s Wegovy pill (16%), and LLY’s Foundayo (13%). Given this, NBRx share for oral therapies (as captured by IQVIA) has started to decline, as physicians prefer injectable therapies.

On a revenue basis, while the strong initial volume unlock could be contributed by cash-pay channel switches and create a pricing headwind (e.g. 10-20% of LLY Direct Patients are eligible for the Bridge program, which translates to a ~$250- $500mn annualized headwind if all patients switch), the strong initial volume uptake for both LLY’s Kwikpen and total obesity GLP-1 volumes gives us incremental confidence in the program being accretive to revenue relatively quickly, with volumes ramping at a

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Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals