Global Technology Semiconductor Capital Equipment Raising 2026 28 WFE estimates, driven by memory and foundry strength

Equity Research 23 August 2026 | 12:08PM EDT

GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY: SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL EQUIPMENT

Raising 2026-28 WFE estimates, driven by memory and foundry strength

Bottom Line: Positive semiconductor CapEx datapoints during 2Q earnings James Schneider, Ph.D. | season drive our WFE estimates meaningfully higher. We raise our 2026/27/28 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC WFE estimates to $150/$218/$281 bn (+36%/+45%/+29%) from $141/$186/$208 Allen Chang bn (+28%/+32%/+12%) previously, reflecting significant CapEx revisions and more | constructive outlooks from SPE suppliers. We see DRAM and leading-edge foundry Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (near term) as well as NAND and Logic/Other (medium term, including Terafab) as Shuhei Nakamura | key drivers of WFE momentum, supported by node transitions, migration to HBM4, Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. and capacity additions. We remain bullish on semi cap equipment stocks, and on a global basis we continue to prefer Buy-rated Applied Materials, Lam Research, ASML, Alexander Duval | Tokyo Electron, ASMI, BESI, Lasertec, and Ebara. Goldman Sachs International

Foundry: We raise our 2026/27/28 Foundry WFE estimates to $58/$84/$109 bn Giuni Lee | (+45%/+45%/+30% YoY) from $52/$68/$78 bn (+30%/+30%/+16% YoY) prior. We Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

increased TSMC CapEx estimates by $8bn each for 2026-28 since our last update, Anmol Makkar | reflecting higher N2 intensity and continued customer demand. We continue to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC expect strong WFE momentum in Foundry, particularly from leading-edge logic, as Kaho Otake N2 ramps volume in the next several quarters. | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

DRAM: We raise our 2026/27/28 DRAM WFE estimates to $48/$72/$97 bn Taeyong Lee | (+50%/+50%/+35% YoY) from $46/$67/$74 bn (+45%/+45%/+10% YoY) prior. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Since our last update, Giuni Lee increased average 2026-28 DRAM CapEx estimates Luya You | by 22% for Samsung and 19% for SK Hynix. Despite higher DRAM spending, we Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC continue to believe the industry will remain capacity constrained into 2028. Khalil Fenina | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC NAND: We adjust our 2026/27/28 NAND WFE estimates to $11/$15/$22 bn (+35%/+35%/+50% YoY) from $11/$17/$20 bn (+40%/+50%/+15% YoY) prior. We Anant Jakhar | expect incremental spending to be largely upgrade‑focused in the near term, Goldman Sachs India SPL supporting tight supply into 2027. Ayo Odunaiya | Logic/Other: We raise our 2026/27/28 Logic WFE estimates to $34/$47/$53 bn Goldman Sachs International (+11%/+40%/+12% YoY) from $32/$35/$37 bn (+5%/+9%/+6% YoY) prior. This is majorly driven by (1) upward revisions at Intel as demand is better than expected and (2) recovery in trailing‑edge and analog markets.

Terafab: Our WFE revisions are also driven by contributions from Terafab as SpaceX and Tesla are committing ~$16.8 bn for the initial phase of Terafab (here); these estimates are embedded in our Logic/Other estimates.

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Goldman Sachs Global Technology: Semiconductor Capital

Exhibit 1: GS WFE Market Forecast (New vs. Old) We now forecast 45% WFE growth in 2026 (up from 32% prior), driven by Foundry and DRAM

$bn New Old % Change New Old % Change New Old % Change

Total WFE 150 141 +6% 218 186 +17% 281 208 +35% yoy 36% 28% +8% 45% 32% +13% 29% 12% +17%

Memory 59 57 +2% 86 84 +3% 119 93 +28% yoy 47% 44% +3% 47% 46% +1% 38% 11% +27%

DRAM 48 46 +3% 72 67 +7% 97 74 +31% yoy 50% 45% +5% 50% 45% +5% 35% 10% +25%

NAND 11 11 -4% 15 17 -13% 22 20 +13% yoy 35% 40% -5% 35% 50% -15% 50% 15% +35%

Foundry/Logic & Other 92 84 +9% 131 102 +28% 162 115 +41% yoy 30% 19% +11% 43% 22% +21% 24% 13% +11%

Foundry 58 52 +12% 84…