GS Abbas GS US Daily Download

GS Abbas - GS US Daily Download 16 Sep 2026 Ismail Abbas · Goldman Sachs · Analyst, Global Banking & Markets 16 Sep 2026

Stat of the Day VC backed exits were around $300bn in 2019 and 2020….and rose to $865bn in 21 before collapsing to between $115 and $155bn between 202

VC backed exits were around $300bn in 2019 and 2020….and rose to $865bn in 21 before collapsing to between $115 and $155bn between 2022 and 2024….so far in 2026……VC backed exits have accounted for $2.18 trillion…more than the previous 5 years combined (h/t Bobby Molavi)

GS high beta momo pair - max drawdown (-42%)

US Credit Flows - Leaving the custodial nuances of the TIC data aside, we find that European investors have represented the largest share of net foreign purchases of US credit in recent years, at 52%. Asia has generated 21%, and the Caribbean (which includes institutions domiciled in tax havens) accounted for 17%. Flows from Japanese investors have been closely monitored by market participants, given policymakers’ recent comments regarding potential ways to increase domestic purchases of Japanese assets. As it relates to foreign investments, the Bank of Japan’s most recent Financial System Report highlighted an increased appetite for CLOs and alternative assets (such as private equity), and decreased holdings of IG and HY bonds. While there may be some scope for a further reduction in IG and HY bonds, we expect this size to be manageable in the context of the broader market.

Actionable GS Research Overnight

Server Market Share Outlook Update - 2Q26 traditional server market growth accelerated sequentially, driven by pricing. 650 Group estimates the industry traditional compute market grew +91% in 2Q26 (v. +24% in 1Q26), with -9% decrease in units offset by +111% growth in ASPs. IDC estimates industry traditional (non-accelerated) server revenue was +81% year-over-year (v. +36% in 1Q26) driven by +17% growth in units and +56% growth in ASPs. DELL gained market share in both traditional and AI servers year-over-year. Per 650 Group estimates, DELL's C2Q26 traditional server revenue was up +278% year- over-year, driven by a +9% year-over-year increase in units and a +248% year-over-year increase in ASPs (v. +122% yoy reported growth for F2Q27, three months ending July 31, 2026); market share in traditional server was up to 29% in 2Q26 (v. 15% in 2Q25). SMCI 2Q26 market share mixed, with AI server softness offset by strength in traditional servers. Per 650 Group estimates, SMCI's C2Q26 traditional server revenue was up +$2.9 bn (356%) year-over-year, driven by a -4% year-over-year decline in units more than offset by at +375% year-over-year increase in ASPs; market share in traditional server was up to 10% in 2Q26 (v. 4% in 2Q25).

WFC’s NII Outlook - WFC’s 2026E NII trajectory remains the central debate for the stock, particularly amid a shifting rate environment that has refocused investor attention on banks’ marginal funding costs. Overall, we remain confident that WFC can achieve its $50bn 2026E NII target, and project $12.7bn/$12.9bn of 3Q26E/4Q26E NII, supported by sustained balance sheet expansion across both loans and capital markets assets. We project a modest ~0.5bp decline in NIM to 2.42% in 3Q26E before stabilizing in 4Q26E. Backing out 1H26 results and NIM guidance, the 2026E NII target implies ~5% YoY NII growth in 2H26, and require ~4% average earning asset growth vs. 1H26, which implies a modest deceleration (vs. 8% 2H25 to 1H26 AEA growth), and screens reasonable in our view.

Burlington Stores Conf Takeaways - Management highlighted the progress made against the company’s strategic plan, evidenced by strong recent earnings growth and outperformance on margin delivery. While management acknowledged they are relatively more cautious on the consumer exiting 2Q vs. at the beginning of the year (higher gas prices), the company remains confident on the off-price business model and share gains ahead. The discussion also touched on targeted reinvestment of tariff refunds to drive value, planned increases in 2H marketing and experimentation, and transitory headwinds from cannibalization based on timing of new store openings (while remaining confident…