GS Abbas GS US Daily Download 7 Sep 2026

GS Abbas - GS US Daily Download 7 Sep 2026 Ismail Abbas · Goldman Sachs · Equity Sales / US Mon 7 Sep 2026, 1:59am ET

Semis volatility in particular has seen a dramatic reset, in what has been a painful stretch for long-vol positions. VXSMH - a proxy for semiconductor implied volatility - has fallen from roughly 65 in July to 36. Nearly cut in half, and back toward where we started 2026.

Rates - Global yields remain at or near recent highs as ongoing energy price risks limit the potential ability for sustainable broad relief. The move higher in yields has not been accompanied by a significant move higher in rates volatility, however, making it harder to argue that non-fundamental factors have driven the move. We think it will take a change in view on the fundamentals—cyclical resilience, inflation risks, fiscal policy, or AI debt supply—to provide lasting relief. The recent stretch of Fedspeak appears to have succeeded in restoring the front-end as the primary point of response in the US, but a final verdict on September pricing still rests with next week’s inflation news. We think there are multiple routes to 5s outperforming on the US curve—our preference is for 5s10s steepeners amid greater two-way risks around front-end curve shape. Ongoing upside risks to European gas prices still pose risks to the European and UK front-ends, despite a relatively high hurdle for the ECB or BoE to out-hike market pricing. This shifts the risk reward away from UK steepeners. We continue to think European duration will be somewhat more protected by the ECB’s reaction function, but Gilts will remain tethered to energy prices via both monetary and fiscal policy. The confluence of a hawkish BoJ reassessment and optimism around the demand backdrop has shifted JGB curve behavior towards stronger flattening. We think front-end receive positions are a useful overlay to flatteners given how far BoJ pricing has run.

Actionable GS Research Overnight

Oil E&Ps - With this note, we update estimates for select oil E&Ps, including TALO, MUR, MGY and APA. In particular, we highlight attractive risk/reward for Buy rated Talos as we see shares trading at a 13% FCF yield on our average 2027/2028 estimates relative to peer average of 10% (peers include APA, MUR, OXY). We highlight three reasons for our positive view on the shares despite LTM strong performance (+74% vs. XOP +45%). First, we hold a constructive view on the strategic direction of the business, as we see TALO continuing to execute on its three pillared strategy and the company has broadened its exploration and development program at a low capital entry cost, including the recent entry into Honduras. Second, TALO's commitment to capital returns and a strong outlook for incremental share repurchases in 2H26. Third, TALO continues to optimize its core position in the GoA through incremental efficiencies and cost savings. We see more upside skew than downside skew to TALO shares and see 16% upside potential with our raised price target of $20 at our mid-cycle price of $75/bbl Brent oil.

Victoria’s Secret - VSXY beat 2Q earnings and raised FY26 guidance. In the quarter, comps came in slightly ahead of FactSet consensus expectations (+9.0% vs. consensus at +8.8%), though based on conversations fell short of elevated investor expectations. Earnings outperformance was strong, with adjusted EPS of $0.95 vs. consensus at $0.77 and adjusted EBIT margin expanding 390bps to 7.7%. While FY26 guidance was raised, the increase was more modest than the magnitude of the quarter's upside as management elected to reinvest a portion of outperformance into marketing and customer acquisition initiatives. We see the company's reinvestments as strategic and appropriate. A meaningful portion of recent outperformance is being reinvested in marketing and customer acquisition initiatives, including the Fashion Show, the newly implemented Angels Among Us docuseries, paid search, and social media investments. While this is contributing to a softer-than-expected 3Q profit outlook.

Cybercab - Tesla hosted a Cybercab launch event for the media on September 3rd in Austin, and is now offering robotaxi rides in the Cybercab per posts…