GS Vol Views GS Vol Views 9 Sep 2026

GS Stankard - GS Vol Views 9 Sep 2026 Robbie Stankard · Goldman Sachs · GS Vol Views desk · Analyst, Global Banking & Markets, FICC & Equities Wed 9 Sep 2026, 11:24am ET

GS Vol Views – our periodic update on flows, ideas, and content from our derivatives desk. Open to feedback so please let us know what might be most u

GS Vol Views – our periodic update on flows, ideas, and content from our derivatives desk. Open to feedback so please let us know what might be most useful...

Overview: Summer is over, positioning is neutral, the near-term catalyst path is rich and vol remains extremely cheap -- ideal conditions for adding convexity to the portfolio across both the micro and macro space.

The desk views that owning right-tail expressions through options makes a lot of sense here given current dynamics, especially with AI back in focus (link). However, with vol at these levels, we also still see merit in tactical protection against near-term macro risks.

As we await critical CPI data on Friday, tech holds center stage with the ongoing GS Communacopia + Tech conference (link) and key earnings from ORCL and ADBE. Implied move through the end of the week is 0.91%.

I) We have seen a sharp compression in implied volatility, especially across TMT stocks -- 1m ATM implied vol for the NDX "avg stock" has dropped from ~57v to ~40v. That said, option positioning remains constructive with NDX "avg stock" normalized put call skew near the flattest levels seen in the last 20 years (Chart).

II) Historically, the most in-demand Tech stocks have outperformed both broad-based market indices (SPXXAI) and broader tech stocks (GSXUTECH) in the week following our annual GS Communacopia + Technology conference (link).

- Trade Idea -- Buy GSCBTC10 Upside -- in either swap or option format to get targeted exposure to the top 10 most requested companies this year (MSFT, DDOG, CRWV, SHOP, AVGO, AMD, NVDA, NBIS, TSM, NFLX)

III) Post-Labor Day weekend, we have seen restored confidence in the memory trade and a subsequent demand for convexity.

- DRAM 16Oct26 75 Calls, gs cust bought 10k outright

IV) Trade Idea -- Buy HOOD Call Spreads -- for a non-tech upside opportunity, driven by the rapid scaling of its prediction markets JV, Rothera.

- HOOD Nov 145 / 180 call spread costs $4.50 (32d/12d, ref. 118.5) and monetizes steep call skew (near ~18m highs, chart)

- Fundamentally, we are constructive given Rothera's rapid scaling (reaching the 3rd-5th largest global prediction exchange by volume) could unlock up to $19.5 billion in bull-case equity value. Excluding Rothera's base-case value, HOOD's core business trades at an attractive adjusted P/E of ~39.2x relative to its premium 22% revenue growth profile (for further reading, link)