S&T SELL

GS Callahan GS US TMT Day 1 GS Communacopia Technology Conference preview 8 Sep 2026

Sep 9, 20268 pages

From the report报告摘录SOX vs Earnings Gap: SOX price trades above consensus quarterly Op Profit/EBIT estimates, signaling potential overvaluation or speculative momentum amid recent price surge (red circle).

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

GS Callahan - GS US TMT Day 1 GS Communacopia Technology Conference preview 8 Sep 2026 Peter Callahan · Goldman Sachs · TMT Sector Specialist Tue 8 Sep 2026, 11:20am ET

GS US TMT .... Day 1 ... GS Communacopia + Technology Conference preview ..

Pumped to get underway out here ... company presentations kick-off in ~1 hour at 850am PST (QCOM, ANET, DOCN, IOT, TKO & more) .. reminder, everything you need here (agenda, WEBCASTS, previews / reviews and more);

see bottom of email for the full sentiment check-down we sent around on Friday ahead of the big show this week:

5 things I am watching on DAY 1 @ GS Communacopia + Technology Conference:

1. Most debated / topical names ...TKO (was the recent "raise" conservative? How does it set stage for 2027 EBITDA)... AXON (recent stock heaviness - what's up?) ... RDDT (can the user debate get cleared up such that revenues can carry the stock?) .... CSCO & FTNT (similar debates; did we pass the "as good as it gets" moment or still another gear for those 2 names?) ... AVGO (multiples years of >100% AI growth... yet, debates still on GMs and customer execution)... IFX (can these analog semi names get back into being trending secular, cyclicals?)... CRWV (S/D framing down the stretch of 2026)

2. Edge & Physical AI... while still early, perhaps a theme into 2027+.... keeping an eye on presentations from: QCOM (updates on both phones and AI devices), HP (PCs...?), IOT (AI for physical operations), Autos (Ford and Rivian) ...and yes, Prometheus

3. SaaS and Apps ... tough two day stretch SaaS (after a resurgent summer for the group) .. healthy debate if the group has definitively turned the corner or not .. from here, all about if SaaS/App companies can deliver concrete AI led product (& revenue) wins to sustain momentum down the stretch of 2026 - watching FIG, SAP, IOT, KVYO today.

4. Consumer watch ... ABNB (is above trend / peer growth sustainable? Product roadmap?) ... Visa (QTD updates - esp after mixed retail sales data & Walmart results).. EBAY (debate on both margins as well as how to frame GMV growth: "peaking" or "better than expected"?)

5. "Inference Economy"... while the capex trade lost some steam over the last few months (.. an opportunity to re-engage?..), the cohort of "inference economy" plays have seen meaningful multiple expansion as the market rewards names that can likely grow through any potential capex gyrations (or, are just more immune from subtle rate of changs on ASPs or S/D).... names i am watching here today SNOW and TWLO.

--- Friday 4 Sep preview (charts) ---

GS US TMT … Communacopia + Technology Conference next week …

The flagship GS Communacopia + Technology Conference is next week in San Francisco (9/8-9/11) .. I am really getting excited to get out there with another fantastic line-up – OpenAI (CFO), AVGO (CEO), NVDA (CEO), Databricks (CEO), MSFT (CFO), SPCX (CFO) and much, much more. I'll be on the ground in SF for the week and look forward to seeing many of you in person. Preview of the big show below. Don't hesitate to reach out if we can help with anything.

… everything you need to know about the conference is available here -- agenda + webcasts + GIR previews ..

We head into next week’s GS TMT conference coming off a relatively frustrating Summer of trading for investors. July marked a tricky factor month (think: Momentum) and August marked a tricky alpha month (strong AI fundys vs less directional px action).

While the fundamental datapoints in TMT continued to improve throughout 2Q earnings (e.g. NVDA guiding FY27 revenues >70% y/y or AVGO pointing to 100%+ growth in ’27 and ‘28), the price action has been much choppier with the GS TMT 12-mo Momentum Pair down >10% in August as Semis lagged the broader market (and lagged Software as well)…

Despite the NDX trading higher on 6 of 8 sessions, we have been in a bit of a ‘holding pattern’ as the macro backdrop is complicated (‘Rates watch’ ahead of a ‘live’ FOMC mtg this month) and risk appetite is muted (see volumes, Vix/vol and gross exposures), leaving investors to debate “what else” the market needs to see to re-visit the AI trade (.. or … is the market genuinely trying to signal a regime shift away from the capex…

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