GS Contessa US Equities Color MO vs Consumer

GS Ariana Contessa - US EQUITIES COLOR: MO vs CONSUMER 17 Aug 2026 Ariana Contessa · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities · Mike Washington, MD Mon 17 Aug 2026, 4:53pm ET

S&P −52bps closing @ 7,745 w/ a MOC of $800mm to BUY. NDX −17bps @ 29,995, R2K −39bps 3,056, and Dow −51bps @ 53,460. 14.534bn shares traded across all US equity exchanges vs ytd daily avg of 19.149bn shares. VIX +653bps @ 15.18, WTI Crude +282bps @ $84.67, US 10YR +0.030bps @ 4.7219%, gold +98bps @ 4,419, dxy −9bps @ 99.58 and Bitcoin +193bps @ $64,231.

Pro-momentum tilt today with memory higher in a continuation of Friday’s moves. Lots of questions on Consumer weakness (−150bps) with most simply pointing to GS high beta momentum basket +5%. Consumer will be the focal point of the week with most of the bellwethers in the space reporting. The results do not feel like they will be a one-size fits all approach. We are expecting dispersion in outcomes and think recent stock performance reflect that. It feels unlikely we will exit this week with a clean read on the consumer. Instead, we expect things are still generally steady, with relative winners and losers. Most investor optimism is with TGT, ROST, AS and EL. Most investor uncertainty is with WMT & TJX (Marmaxx). Modestly more relative optimism in HD > LOW, though with some uncertainty on top-line (vs Consensus) for both — TY Scott Feiler.

Our floor was a 3 on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels muted amidst summer trading. Asset Mgr and HF skews finished roughly flat. We currently estimate 96% of the S&P 500 are in an open window period. With over $1T in buyback authorizations announced, corporate demand is estimated to remain over the summer, potentially helping absorb supply in an otherwise thin summer liquidity environment.

DERIVS: Quiet start to the week as we kicked off the day with our implied weekly move at ~5y lows (89bps). All of our signals on the vol desk are pointing to little movement this week, as our US Panic Index registered a 0.36 / 10. Dealers were long $15bn of gamma (99th percentile) after Friday’s session, and we estimate that level held out today, with dealers even getting slightly longer. Today we saw hedges and non AI shorts picking up as long end yields continue to drift wider. The desk likes IWM and XHB puts to hedge the backend continuing to trade weak + lingering uncertainty with oil. On the other hand, renewed VIX call demand means dealer vega positioning is no longer as supportive on the downside as it was just a few days ago, hence saw buying today. Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities, as of August 17, 2026.