GS Crook GS MORNING 1 Adam Crook's Latest, 2 JPY Update, 3 AI Back in Focus, 4 Week Ahead and 5 GCEM Symposium 7 Sep 2026

GS Crook - GS MORNING 1) Adam Crook's Latest, 2) JPY Update, 3) AI Back in Focus, 4) Week Ahead and 5) GCEM Symposium 7 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FICC Sales / Macro Mon 7 Sep 2026, 4:31am ET

Highlights from GS Research, Sales and Trading: 1) Adam Crook’s Latest, 2) JPY Update, 3) AI Back in Focus, 4) Week Ahead and 5) GCEM Symposium

1) ADAM CROOK – Connecting you to GS: Thoughts from The Floor - LINK

Key Questions: Is the path of least resistance in Rates for higher yields from here – If not, what changes the current path? Fresh highs for TTF – What’s the base-case in to Winter, what’s the right tail + how could this impact inflation? Post Payrolls, where does Sep + beyond Fed pricing move under different CPI + PPI outcomes next week? How do JGBs stabilise – Will the BoJ accelerate tightening or are there other measures policymakers will implement? What is positioning like in popular Emerging Markets Trades, how much has been cut, and is there value starting to appear now in some trades?

See below summarised views from GS Senior Thought leaders on US Rates, as we approach a critical CPI print, ahead of the September FOMC.

ANSHUL SEHGAL (CO-HEAD OF FICC): We've got two starkly different reads from Chairman Warsh and Governor Waller. So, it's a bit of a coin-toss in terms of whether they hike this cycle or not.

As Chairman Warsh said, there are parts of the economy that are clearly in recession, housing, for example, and there are parts of the economy that are booming, AI CapEx, for example. We don't expect the Fed to engage in a full blown hiking cycle. The 1y1y rate currently sounds about right

This is not a rate story. It is not a consumer spending story. It is not a story that should affect equities away from the AI names. By and large, the economy is on cruise control and it's doing fine. The way we're looking at it is a short duration position mainly in the belly, more than the long end. The long end's got its own dynamics. A short duration position in the belly pairs well with long risk assets. And we really like the broader long risk assets trade a fair bit here, given the CapEx that is earmarked for the next 12 months plus the fiscal.

BRANDON BROWN (US TREASURY TRADING): After a strong payroll report, September meeting sits at 15 bps priced. Given Waller emphasized the next round of inflation data will drive his vote, sitting near 50/50 priced makes sense heading into next week’s data. In our view, we are likely to see another divided Committee, especially if the inflation data comes in soft and we see another hold. The bar for a hike vs a hold is probably about 25bps core PCE based of the pass thru from PPI and CPI. Moving out the curve, the market prices a bit above 60bps by the middle of 2027. In our view, it is unlikely we see more

than 3 hikes in the near term even if the data is hot and therefore think scaling into front end longs into back-ups can make sense.

FX STRATEGY (TRIVEDI/CAHILL) : JPY rallied by about 3% over the course of a couple trading days, likely in part due to the rising probability of domestic policy shifts that could meaningfully strengthen the Yen, as well as the higher perceived risk of intervention following a possible “rate check” on September 2. Shortly after the July-August intervention, we asked “can this time be different?” as the size and scope of operations sent a powerful signal to markets.

We noted that the fundamental reasons for currency weakness—i.e., expansionary fiscal policy alongside only gradual rate hikes, resilient US growth, and constructive risk sentiment—had yet to change. But we also highlighted that a faster pace of BoJ hikes or signs of rotation back towards Japanese assets could keep the Yen stronger for longer even without a shift in the global macro backdrop. Since then, Governor Ueda has essentially confirmed market pricing of a September BoJ hike. There has also been growing speculation that Japan’s public pension fund (GPIF) will shift its allocation targets to favor domestic assets, following reports in mid-July of the administration’s focus on encouraging such flows. While there have been no signs of rotation among typically unhedged investors in the…