GS Crook GS MORNING 1 FX Trader Call, 2 Praneet Shah on $JPY, 3 View on Treasury Buyback Announcement Today, 4 Central Bank Forecast Changes and 5 China Macro Survey 9 Sep 2026

GS Crook - GS MORNING 1) FX Trader Call, 2) Praneet Shah on $JPY, 3) View on Treasury Buyback Announcement Today, 4) Central Bank Forecast Changes and 5) China Macro Survey 9 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FX Sales / Trading Wed 9 Sep 2026, 4:25am ET

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) FX Trader Call, 2) Praneet Shah on $JPY, 3) View on Treasury Buyback Announcement Today, 4) Central Bank Forecast Changes and 5) China Macro Survey

1) FX Trader Call Today @ 2:00 PM LDN

Aim is to keep it short and punchy: Views from strategy and traders across G10 and EM. Topics = what is dominant flow/theme in your market? What is your favourite trade idea?

Praneet Shah: FX Options Trading

Brian Bingham: US Short Macro Trading

This call is hosted by us each week in the same format. Please get in touch to get a recurring invite in your diary.

2) FX OPTIONS TRADING (PRANEET SHAH) - $JPY

Some key points from Praneet Shah, Global Head of FXO Trading, on the recent move in $JPY. Please reach out to the desk to receive the full note.

How much has USDJPY moved and what has been driving it...?

Spot move: USDJPY has traded from a high of 160.39 last week to an overnight low 152.89. Since Thursday, spot volumes have been running at approx 2x normal on primary venues

Drivers: BOJ turning hawkish – almost two hikes now priced into year-end. Talk of increased GPIF domestic allocation (would amount to ~$100bio if max reallocation within current limits). CTA stop losses through key levels (158.50 200d MA) and option barrier related stops

What client flows have we seen...?

Thursday- Friday: Overwhelming demand from HFs to buy 1w-3m downside optionality (152/148 type strikes). Directional interest to play for a move into 150. Systematic / RV stop outs in gamma (managing derive from short skew positions). ‘this time feels different’ – very little interest to fade and play for retracement unlike July intervention episode

Post NFP: As spot stalled into 155, HFs used more leveraged expressions via RKOs and EKOs to play for a slower move into 148. This took skew pricing from the highs of 1m RR at 3v to 2.5v

This week: More interest to own options further out the curve 6m-1y outright downside puts and digitals given the vol curve inversion. Clients taking profit on some shorter-dated downside options. First signs of buying TOPSIDE on the move into 153.00 (protect cash shorts)

Levels: Expect spot to stall into 155.20 and 158.50 to be major resistance. On a break of 152.00, target 148.00 (‘Takaichi Gap’)

Why we like JPY stronger: July intervention helped to stabilise the FX. BOJ/GPIF flows can help turn the tide on local perceptions on JPY – generating more of a structural shift. Higher vol and narrower rate differentials now make it tough to hold JPY funded carry -- so think the persistent JPY sell flow may subside

In context July-Aug 2024 moves USDJPY traded 162 to 142, then stabilised 148 to what was a similar positioning setup (retail/CTA stop outs). Think short-term 152/153.00 could act as a base and 155.00 acts as eventual resistence – targetting end-Oct move to 148.00. If this really is repatriation flow and encourages sustained retail/ life insurance flow – a larger medium-term move into 140.00 could be on the cards.

CHART 1: USDJPY Spot Compared to 50d and 200dmas