GS Crook GS MORNING 1 FX Trader Call Today, 2 September CPI Preview, 3 Hybrids Stretched Equity Rates Correlation, 4 5 Key Charts and 5 GS Energy Webcast

GS Crook - GS MORNING: 1) FX Trader Call Today, 2) September CPI Preview, 3) Hybrids: Stretched Equity/Rates Correlation, 4) 5 Key Charts and 5) GS Energy Webcast 14 Oct 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities 14 Oct 2026

Highlights from GS Research, Sales and Trading: 1) FX Trader Call Today, 2) CPI Preview, 3) Hybrids: Stretched Equity/Rates Correlation, 4) 5 Key Char

Highlights from GS Research, Sales and Trading: 1) FX Trader Call Today, 2) CPI Preview, 3) Hybrids: Stretched Equity/Rates Correlation, 4) 5 Key Charts and 5) GS Energy Webcast

1) FX Trader Call Today @ 2:00 PM LDN

Aim is to keep it short and punchy: Views from Strategy and Traders across G10 and EM. Topics = what is dominant flow/theme in your market? What is your favourite trade idea?

Will Marshall: Head of US Rates Strategy most recent piece, ‘The Factors Behind the Rise in US Yields’, [ here]

Kristian Brauten-Smith: G10 Spot Trading

This call is hosted by us each week in the same format. Please get in touch to get a recurring invite in your diary.

2) US ECONOMICS (MERICLE) – September CPI Preview – LINK

BOTTOM LINE: We expect a 0.24% increase in September core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.46% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We expect a 0.59% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.6% consensus), reflecting higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a slightly smaller 0.20% increase in core PCE in September.

We highlight three key component-level trends we expect to see in the report:

1/ We expect a pickup in autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% increase in new car prices, and a 0.2% increase in the auto insurance category.

2/ We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.20% increase in the OER category and a 0.17% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trends.

3/ We expect a 3.0% increase in airfares, reflecting the impact of the further increase in jet fuel prices.

Beyond September: We expect a monthly core CPI increase of around 0.2% in October, reflecting upward pressure from distortions to the seasonal factors caused by missing data from last year’s government shutdown, and increases of around 0.1% in November and December, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases.

US ECONOMICS (RINDELS) on the Impact of AI Demand on Inflation: We estimate that AI price pressures are currently boosting core PCE inflation by about 45bp, of which about half reflects a genuine impact rather than mismeasurement, and we expect this to peak at 50bp by end-2026 before declining to 10bp by end-2027. Our estimate of the impact on headline PCE inflation is about 5-10bp higher over that time horizon. We expect the impact to decline next year mainly because our sector analysts expect memory and computer prices to grow at a significantly slower pace. Full piece here.

CHART 1: We Expect a 0.24% Increase in Core CPI in September

Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

3) Hybrids: Stretched Equity/Rates Correlation

Flows that are trying to hedge the downside AI tails has pushed equity/yield correlation back to highs; SPX-US Yields implied at +10 on 6m.

This is in spite of still very negative realised; SPX-US Yields at -50% on 6m basis and -40% on 1m and 3m.

See below for various trades to take advantage of this. Charts below show the implied and realised picture.

1/ Rates relief -> another leg of equity higher