GS Crook GS Morning 21 Aug 2026

GS Crook - GS Morning Jackson Hole Preview KRW Update 21 Aug 2026 Crook · Goldman Sachs · Managing Director, FICC & Equities Fri 21 Aug 2026, 4:59am ET

Highlights from GS Research, Sales, and Trading: 1) Jackson Hole Preview, 2) KRW Update, 3) Unpacking Recent Price Action, 4) FX Trader Call Takeaways and 5) Long-End Yields Podcast

1) GS FX MARKETSTRATS (SCHMITTEN) – Wyoming Calling

Key charts from Jonas Schmitten, Head of GS FX MarketStrats, ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Please let us know if you would like to be added to the distribution list.

CHART 1: Event Gaps Seem Low Relative to Historical Moves Around Keynote Speeches Since 2010

CHART 2: Historically, US 10y Yields Have Tended to Move Lower During Jackson Hole Speeches

CHART 3: Jackson Hole Symposium Timeline

Compilation of views on KRW across Trading and Strategy (h/t Arvin Joseph)

Stock Buybacks: SK Hynix & Samsung likely have enough KRW cash buffers to finance these buybacks without large USD sales. Free cash flow (FCF) for SK Hynix + Samsung in 1H26 was around 125bn USD. Given the high exporter conversion ratios of close to 80% this year, both firms will likely have enough cash onshore for the buybacks. SK Hynix announced a buyback of 29bn USD between Aug to Nov. Samsung details will be out later today. The broader implication though is that these firms will continue with a high conversion ratio (USD selling) to continue funding such buybacks.

NPS: At current level of USDKRW, we expect NPS may unwind strategic hedging (i.e. would Buy USDs) according to old formula (which points to a trigger level of around 1390). This may turn NPS from a neutral flow player in the market to a US$6-8bn/month USD buyer (~US$5bn/month outbound investment + unwind of hedges). We need to observe how Govt and NPS manage the hedges and their overseas investments.

Given the big pick-up exporter conversion though – even if we see a return of NPS USD buying, KRW might be turning from a currency dominated by financial flows to one driven by current account driven flows. The market chatter is that the local authorities are looking to get spot to around 1350 levels as a start.

CHART 1: KRW Current Account and Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)