GS Duttenhoefer Daily

GS Johannes Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefer's Daily 18 Aug 2026 Johannes Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Executive Director, Global Banking & Markets Tue 18 Aug 2026, 1:59am ET

S&P -52bps @7745 (+13% ytd) on low volumes; pro momentum trading with Memory +4% and AI vs AI at risk also +4%; GS high beta momentum basket +5% (July was the weakest month since 2000); Brent higher $91; Gold $4391 and Bitcoin $64k; rates higher with US 10yr at 4.73% and 30yr at 5.32% (highest since June 2007); Japan 10yr at 2.93% (highest since 1996); FOMC minutes tmrw; Nvidia on 26th Aug is the next big market event.

US x Iran: 60-day deadline to reach a deal has now passed; Trump again said he is in no rush and warned of an attack on Oman if it “gets in the way” of efforts in the Strait of Hormuz.

Chips: Trump administration is likely to block Apple from using memory chips from China's CXMT; Howard Lutnick said he had directly told Apple already.

US consumer: only 8% of consumers expect income growth to outpace inflation over the next year.

China car industry: Chinese car shipments surged to 1.1m in June (+71% yoy) vs Germany at roughly 250k; the chart starting 2010 tell the story.

power of duration: Pimco´s 25+ yr zero coupon UST ETF (see ZROZ on BBG) is down -65% since 2021. (BBG)

Anthropic: annual rev run rate topped $65bn in July vs $47bn in May and $9bn at the end of 2025.

Shein (online fast-fashion retailer): has reportedly lowered its target valuation to around $25bn for its HK IPO which is a steep drop from the $30-40bn aimed for earlier in August (and $100bn peak valuation in 2022).

Gold: location of central bank’s gold holdings appears increasingly top of mind for reserve managers and BoE remains a preferred custody; GS nowcast estimates central bank purchases of 57 tonnes in June (100 tonnes/month on a 3-month seasonally adjusted basis versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes), with a large contribution from China; central bank diversification remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end-2026 forecast.

Uber: investing in drone delivery company Zipline aiming for 1m Uber Eats drone deliveries per day by the end of 2029. our GS Global Drones baskets with 36 companies can be found under GSXGDRON Index on Bloomberg.

Defence: support for defence spending remains on track in the EU; funding visibility has improved; spending upgrade is sizeable, uneven and increasingly led by capital expenditure; EDA expects EU defence spending to reach EUR 454bn (2.3% of GDP) in 2026 up from EUR 214bn (1.5% of GDP) in 2021. see our GS Defense (GSXEDEFX) and GS New Defense (GSXENDEF) baskets.

2Q earnings: S&P EPS growth is tracking at +31% yoy excluding the "other income" related to some private investment stakes; we estimate that AI infrastructure stocks have accounted for 50% of that EPS growth; earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating; the median S&P 500 company grew EPS by 14% year/year during Q2.

Stat of the Day: S&P free cash flow; I didn’t expect this to be better-than-expected with all this capex going on; for S&P (ex-financials), FCF actually grew >30% yoy in 1H26.

Chart of the Day: Cumulative flows from Global investors.

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities, as of August 18, 2026.