GS Duttenhoefer Daily 19 Aug 2026

GS Johannes Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefer´s Daily (19.08.2026) Johannes Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Executive Director, FICC & Equities Wed 19 Aug 2026, 1:58am ET

S&P -69bps @7691 (+12% ytd) with a clear momentum unwind; our High Beta Momentum Basket (GSPRHIMO) lost -6%; Sox down -5% (still +69% ytd); Kospi following today -6% (led by Samsung/SkHynix -6%/-7%); rates a bit lower with US 10yr at 4.69%; Brent $92, Gold $4338 and Bitcoin $64.2k; FOMC minutes today; Nvidia results 26th August.

Unitree Robotics: surged >600% to US$66bn valuation in Shanghai share debut. China ordered local governments and state-owned enterprises to deploy 10,000+ humanoid robots in commercial use by the end of 2026.

Klarna (-22% yday): mgmt said on their call “what we saw towards the back end of 2Q was a softening in basically the consumer discretionary spend in Germany. Germany is our largest share of volume or our largest market from a volume perspective”.

Terafab: SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk called it “the largest and most valuable building on Earth by far.”; will be 2.5 miles long and 100 million square feet in area; the first phase is pegged at a cost of $16.8bn; Terafab intends to make chips for self-driving vehicles, humanoid robots and orbital and terrestrial data centers.

AT&T: open models currently power about 25% their AI usage and they expect this to rise to 70-80%; switching from closed, proprietary AI models to open models has already resulted in savings of 80% to 90% for AT&T in certain applications.

Gold: central bank diversification remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end‑2026 forecast.

Fed: “after 2 months of materially softer jobs and inflation data, it’s hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes. Therefore, a hike at the September meeting has become very unlikely, barring a dramatic shift in the tone of the August data due in early September (which we don’t expect).”

Today at 7pm CET (replay will be available): GS Monthly US Equity Flow & Positioning Webinar; we will review YTD and MTD flow, performance, and positioning color from the GS Equity Execution and Prime pads. We will also discuss geopolitics, rates, and TMT EPS prints reported so far.

I received many requests on this post: we launched a software pair trade (GSPUSFTX) which consists of going long software that AI cannot realistically displace because they require physical execution, regulatory entrenchment, integration complexity, or human accountability, and businesses that benefit directly from increased AI usage – compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI development platforms (GSTMTSOL) vs going short software-tilted workflows that AI could increasingly automate or rebuild internally, potentially reducing need for outsourcing (GSTMTSOS).

Token Costs: AI token costs are down -49% from their May level driven by Chinese models being a clear alternative to US peers; see SDLLMTK Index on Bloomberg.

star manager: Dataroma delivers a good overview on “star manager portfolios” showing their recent filings; I looked through them and Google, Uber, Netflix, Mastercard and a few more are shared favourites.

EU Baskets: our teams is publishing a quick weekly on flows and interesting ideas; we saw renewed demand in European Defense and supply in EU Luxury; net de-grossing in our EU China Competition basket was also interesting.

Stat of the Day: we have seen more than 20x one day -5% sell offs in High Beta Momentum YTD which is more than in the last 5 years combined.

Chart of the Day: BloombergNEF projects that starting next year, the U.S. won’t have enough data center power capacity to run all the AI server chips being produced. (BBG, thanks Patrick V.)

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities.