GS Duttenhoefer Daily 20 Aug 2026

GS Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefer´s Daily (20.08.2026) Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Executive Director, FICC & Equities Thu 20 Aug 2026, 1:49 AM ET

S&P +21bps @7708 (+13% ytd) with ongoing momentum drawdowns; our GS TMT Momentum Pair is down -16% in 2-days (led by semis); rates lower with US 10yr at 4.63% (on Treasury Buybacks); Bitcoin/ETH higher at $69k/$2.2k (SEC proposal, White House meeting and whale buying); Bitcoin stocks +8% (see GSCBBTC1 Index); FOMC minutes rather dovish than hawkish; Moderna closed +177% on vaccine success; Kospi +6% today based driven by Samsung/SkHynix +5% ($29bn buyback); systematic L/S had their worst day (-1.4%) in >2yrs; Jackson Hole next week and Nvidia on 26th August in focus.

Treasury Buybacks: is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (10-30yrs); current maximum size of $2bn per operation will be at least $4bn per operation.

OpenAI: revenue grew +18% to $6.7bn in Q2 (vs. Anthropic +100%+ to $11.6bn); operating loss widened to $12.3bn from $9.3bn in Q1.

Fed: our current Top of Mind edition has a few interviews and thoughts on whether a less transparent Fed era under Kevin Warsh is positive or negative; we speak with Former Fed governors Donald Kohn and Stephen Miran as well as GS’ Jan Hatzius.

Waymo: opened its next-generation robotaxi to all riders in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco; pushes to expand its fleet with vehicles that are cheaper to build, operate, and maintain.

US Debt: Treasury announced that total public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time; with two months left in the fiscal year, interest costs so far for 2026 is already >$1.2 trillion; total debt doubled over the last decade.

HF exposure: TMT stocks are the most net bought among all US sectors in August so far, led by hyperscalers and semiconductor names; Aggregate net exposure in Broad AI (GSTMTAIP) has risen so far in August but remains well below the highs seen in May.

SPXXAI: this is the S&P excluding companies perceived to be enablers of artificial intelligence innovation; the index is at ATH and is right below technically overbought levels; we have seen the lowest and most negative correlation on record between our GS Broad AI basket (GSTMTAIP) and SPXXAI Index. The basket and the index have only traded in the same direction 1/3rd of the time in the last 3 months (vs ~2/3rd historical average).

How are Mutual Funds positioned? we analyzed 504 large-cap active mutual funds with a combined $4.6 trillion in equity assets; -724 bp underweight the Mag 7 at the end of 2Q26 (reduced positions in each of the Mag 7); most overweight Financials (+231 bp), Industrials (+204 bp) and Health Care (+197 bp); cash balances very low at 1.2% of assets.

Bitcoin (vs Gold): 30-day realized correlation has risen from effectively zero at the start of the year to a peak of +0.65 (both assets repricing Fed rate expectations); BTC continues to track within the halving cycle and the Clarity Act playbook will also be interesting; details from our Crypto team here.

Gold: central bank diversification remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end‑2026 forecast.

Stat of the Day: recent trading flows point to a sharp rotation back into US equities, which have been net bought for three straight weeks; on a trailing 3-week basis in % terms, the recent buying in the US is the largest since March 2020 and second largest in the past decade.

Chart of the Day: Mutual fund cash balances are back near historical lows. BUT as a reminder: money market funds have roughly $8000bn cash parked which is nearly 2x the value of 2022 (BBG).

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities.