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GS Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefers Daily 15 Sep 2026 Johannes Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Executive Director, Global Banking & Markets 15 Sep 2026, 1:58am ET

S&P -48bps @7620 (+11% ytd) with much bigger moves below the surface; SOX lost -6% driven by chip sell-off post Anthropic CEO´s essay on AI safety; AI

S&P -48bps @7620 (+11% ytd) with much bigger moves below the surface; SOX lost -6% driven by chip sell-off post Anthropic CEO´s essay on AI safety; AI vs AI at Risk (GSPUARTI) lost -10% (worst day since Deepseek); cyber stocks Palo Alto and Crowdstrike both +13%; our software basket also +5%; Brent still at $107 and US10yr now >5% for the first time since 2023; market pricing 72% for 2 hikes in 2026; Gold $4306 (now down ytd) and Bitcoin $77.5k (-12% ytd); analyst days (e.g. Salesforce), company events (e.g. SPCX Grok, SNAP Specs), conferences (our TMT Conf in London) and central banks (FOMC, BoE and BoJ) in focus this week.

Anthropic x Nvidia: negotiating a $10bn anchor investment as part of the offering according to press; annualized revenue run rate at $65bn by July vs $9bn end of 2025. Link

Cyber: was one of the most discussed topics at our Tech conference in San Fran last week; see our Cyber basket with 16 stocks in that space (Palo Alto, Crowdstrike etc); ticker is GSTMTCYB Index.

interesting: momentum regime shift is accelerating as performance of short-term winners has diverged from longer term winners at unprecedented levels; 3m momentum (GSPRHMO3) was up 5% yday as 12m momentum (GSPRHIMO) was down 6.7% which was the largest underperformance in 5yrs; positioning in the momentum factor has reset materially and longer term winners have struggled amidst the worst AI drawdown since ChatGPT’s launch; short-term momentum is rotating into software and away from semi; these dynamics are reshaping the makeup of momentum. Link

Buybacks: 40% of S&P companies are expected to enter their quiet periods which results in less buybacks; September is normally a slow buyback month (7% of annual execution) but October and November (both nearly 10% are much stronger); details here: Link

Microsoft: published its “Humanist AI” Code of Conduct as primary governing document for training its MAI models from 2027 onward; core philosophy is that AI must remain subordinate to humans, never resist shutdown or develop independent goals. Link

Fed: we now expect a 25bp hike tmrw; additional hikes are possible but are not our baseline; we think that the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold when the market is pricing a nearly 90% chance of a hike; we do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate; we continue to think that all of the overshoot of the 2% target can be attributed to one-time factors whose impact is likely to fade. Link

Gold: strong central bank purchases of 44 tonnes in July (vs. a pre‑2022 average of 17 tonnes), with a large contribution from China (35 tonnes); continue to see net upside risk to our $4,900/oz end-2026 gold

forecast, but also greater two-sided volatility along the path. Link

CLARITY Act: cloture vote scheduled for today at 2.15pm ET; fresh pressure as 18 attorneys general urged the Senate to reject the revised bill; Bessent said the latest draft gives his office additional authority to protect community banks from stablecoin-related risks. Link

worth listening: 45min podcast with our entire TMT research team as they discuss the top takeaways from our Communacopia + Tech Conference, held last week in San Francisco, from Semis to Software, Telcos to Media, IT Services, Payments, the Internet and more. Link

higher rates vs equities: our US chief strategies looking at the impact of higher rates on equities; rising rates are a headwind for equity valuations, but earnings are the most important driver of stocks; valuations relative to bonds have been roughly unchanged; equities typically struggle when the Fed starts to hike rates, but we expect the bull market to continue. Link

Quote of the Day: “The great thing about life is Jensen can develop the most complex computer chip in the world but he can’t figure out how to put you on speaker,” Trump when he called…