GS Duttenhoefer Duttenhoefers Daily 7 Sep 2026

GS Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefers Daily 7 Sep 2026 Johannes Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Equity Sales / Europe Mon 7 Sep 2026, 2:07am ET

S&P -38bps @7718 (+13% ytd) after a strong jobs report (162k vs 55k); rising oil prices and the Fed debate did not help; markets are now pricing a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in Sep; US 10yr at 4.78%, Brent $97; Gold $4403 and Bitcoin $80k; ongoing Iran headlines over the weekend; Germany´s AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt state election but falls short of majority; US markets closed today (Labour Day); our big Tech conf starts in San Fran tmrw; Apple event (Wed), ECB rate decision (Thu) and US inflation in focus (Friday).

Trump: said to cut off trade with countries that have surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates; “each point in interest in this country that we pay costs us $650bn. We should be at 1% or a half a %. We shouldn’t be at 4%.”.

ECB: rate decision on Thursday; expect a 25bps hike (fully priced); focus will be on the updated staff projections and Lagarde’s comments on the policy outlook; we think that Sep is the last hike of this tightening cycle given our forecast for below-trend H2 growth, modest further core pressures, our forecast for lower energy prices than currently implied by forwards, and no Fed hikes.

Apple: launch event on Wed could be one of its biggest in years; Apple’s first event with John Ternus as CEO; will likely feature the first models in Apple’s iPhone 18 lineup; could include the long-rumored foldable “iPhone Ultra; a good preview

Samsung: we hosted investor meetings in US/Canada; mgmt reiterated its view of 2027 memory supply being tighter than 2026 with tightness to persist in 2028; memory demand fulfillment rate being at only around a 60% level; LTA discussions are progressing well with better visibility and more efficient investment decisions compared to past cycles (could account for 60-70% in the future); saw a 26%/78% yoy growth in R&D expense in 1Q26/2Q26.

Interesting: hyperscaler bond issuance is expected to surge to $320bn this year; as % of Treasury bond issuance, this is estimated to rise to a record ~70% which would be more than double the 30% recorded in 2025 and nearly 9x larger than 2024 levels. (BBG); here our AI related financing report from July:

Germany: Apollo highlighting that Germany has the least-funded pension system of any major advanced economy; funded pension assets are just 7% of GDP (vs 149% in Sweden or 185% in Canada); the pension reform could channel 2% of salaries into long-term savings, 1% from employers and 1% from employees; could reach around €90 billion annually once fully implemented, roughly 2% of German GDP.

Gold: Dutch central bank shifted 86 tonnes of gold out of New York/Canada toward Amsterdam/London; the NY share of Dutch gold is now 18% vs 31% before.

Tesla: started Cybercab robotaxi rides in Austin on Friday; Tesla’s robotaxi fleet has reached 1m unsupervised autonomous miles.

Anthropic: signed $517bn compute capacity contracts over the past 11 months; deals include 10yr agreements with Amazon and Google worth >$300bn and major contracts with Microsoft, SpaceX, and nScale.

Semis at our Tech conference: we will host 32 companies from the Semis space; Jim presents his views on the top debates on the landscape

asset allocation: we remain tactically neutral across assets for 3m and modestly pro-risk for 12m, with Overweight equities, Neutral bonds, commodities and cash, and Underweight credit; sustained, healthy earnings growth should support equity outperformance versus bonds and credit over 12m, although returns are likely to slow as earnings growth and revisions peak; near-term volatility could rise amid rates volatility, seasonal weakness, US midterm elections and broader geopolitical risks, pointing to staying invested, buying dips and mitigating risk through diversification and selective overlay hedges.

Bitcoin: CLARITY Act is scheduled for a procedural floor vote on 15 Sep; with lawmakers in session for only 14 days in Sep before adjourning again in Oct, any failure to advance the bill would likely push its prospects into the post-election lame-duck session before expiry on 3 January 2027.