GS Duttenhoefer Duttenhoefers Daily 8 Sep 2026

GS Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefers Daily 8 Sep 2026 Johannes Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Equity Sales / Europe Tue 8 Sep 2026, 2:04am ET

SX5E +17bps (+11% ytd) on low volumes with US markets closed for Labour day; rates unchanged with US/Bund 10yr at 4.77%/3.38%; Brent $98, Gold $4435 and Bitcoin $79k; KOSPI +3% driven by SkHynix/Samsung +3%/+2%; this week in focus are our big Tech conf in San Fran (starts today), Apple event tmrw, ECB rate decision (Thu), Oracle/Adobe earnings (Thu) and US inflation (Friday).

US x Canada: retaliatory tariffs on a range of US goods came into effect now; both sides said they would like to strike a deal; it´s the world's largest bilateral trading relationship valued at nearly $900bn in 2025.

Hedgefund positioning: US L/S Net leverage increased but still in the 4th percentile one-year on a 1yr horizon; US Fundamental long/short ratio is also still in the 4th percentile on a 1yr horizon.

Copper: reached a new ATH above $14500 supported by renewed US tariff risks and a tight physical market; our Global Copper Basket (GSXGCOPP) comprises 25 mining companies with a large share of EBITDA from copper exploitation and is expected to outperform as copper demand increases.

Higher energy costs: the war with Iran has now cost US consumers $100bn in higher energy prices; this is roughly $760 per US household since Feb.

Oil: we raise our Brent price forecasts by $5 to $85/80 for Dec2026/27 reflecting our new assumption that Mideast shipping disruptions continue into 2027; the price upgrade is modest because OECD commercial oil inventories have so far barely drawn since the war began, and because we assume Mideast supply adaptation continues.

Interesting point from our option trader: “we just traded through the lowest realized correlation period in recent history; realized correlation across S&P over the last 6 months is 11, only two periods in the last 25yrs have seen this; Feb 2007 and Jan 2018; history book suggests levels this low are not sustainable and have ended in a starburst of index vol convexity”.

Mistral: raised €3bn at a valuation of >€21bn from investors led by Samsung Electronics; makes Mistral Europe's second-highest-valued private tech group and the fastest-growing company in Europe.

ECB: rate decision on Thursday; we expect a 25bps hike (fully priced); focus will be on the updated staff projections and Lagarde’s comments on the policy outlook; we think that Sep is the last hike of this tightening cycle.

European equities: we have Overweights in Technology, Banks, Defence (GSSBDEFE), Telecoms and Renewables (GSSBRNEW) vs Underweight in areas where we think growth will continue to be sluggish: Autos, Chemicals, Travel & Leisure and Healthcare.

ETFs: impressive to see that Vanguard´s FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF (VALU LN) surpassed $1bn in AUM in last 2 weeks since listed with flows only one way; an ETF product in Europe has been

primarily seen as an institutional product in the past but this product clearly shows, right product, with right distribution and you can capture AUM quickly from Retail.

Worth listening: we host a 60min weekend call every week focusing on top of mind themes (published late Friday/early Saturday); this week was on Fed pricing, bond market volatility, European Gas, Mid-Terms, M&A & the Next Wave of AI.

Stat of the Day: we forecast the price of humanoid robots on average to fall from over $40k in 2025 (and about $150k for high-spec robots) to about $21k in 2035 (and about $50k for high-spec robots).

Chart of the Day: estimated humanoid retail price (some prices quoted are expected prices at scale production). Source: Goldman Sachs; past performance is no indicator for future performance.