GS Duttenhoefer Duttenhoefers Daily 9 Sep 2026

GS Duttenhoefer - Duttenhoefers Daily 9 Sep 2026 Johannes Duttenhoefer · Goldman Sachs · Equity Sales Wed 9 Sep 2026, 2:06am ET

S&P -58bps @7674 (+12% ytd) with activity levels picking up; higher oil prices and yield are still a headwind; rates unchanged with US 10yr at 4.79%; Brent back at $99, Gold $4379 and Bitcoin $79k; SOX +1.3% vs. Mag7 down 19bps (only TSLA up); Intel +9% on price increase headlines; this week in focus are our big Tech conf in San Fran, Apple event today, ECB rate decision (tmrw), Oracle/Adobe earnings (tmrw) and US inflation (Friday).

Middle East: Brent close to $100 as Houthis attacked 4 cities in Saudi Arabia and targeted several oil facilities in the country’s south; Riyadh says it will retaliate. US says Iranian tankers ‘destroyed’ after missile attacks on American warship.

Qualcomm x Amazon: announced a multi-generation partnership to build custom chips for AWS's large- scale AI data centers; SEC filing disclosed a warrant that allows Amazon to acquire up to 25 million shares of Qualcomm stock which is tied to vesting based on the execution of the commercial agreements, binding orders and actual purchases.

retail investor: Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) decreased to 57.50 from a 4yr high; “trading activity suggests Schwab’s retail clients were becoming more selective as markets recovered”; “taking profits in high-beta software stocks after sharp rebounds while remaining engaged with growth and innovation leaders such as SpaceX (SPCX) and Nvidia (NVDA).”

NY Fed consumer survey: mean unemployment expectations increased to 44.4% which is the highest reading since April 2020.

Bitcoin: 50-day moving average is about to cross it’s 200-day moving average for the first time in 474 days; last 5 golden crosses delivered >40% performance over 3 months.

Walmart: start delivery from Dunkin’ to customers homes builds on a deal earlier this year for Subway sandwiches; entering food delivery services like Uber Eats and DoorDash.

Google: we hosted Cloud CEO Kurian at our conference; continued momentum across Cloud's AI and cloud businesses; supported by strong customer acquisition trends and a diversified portfolio of 17x $1bn+ product lines.

Apple: today’s launch event could be one of its biggest in years; first event with news CEO John Ternus; will likely feature the first models in Apple’s iPhone 18 lineup; could include the long-rumoured foldable “iPhone Ultra; a good preview here.

OpenAI: announced that it has generated a solution to the most commonly used physical model of fluids (Navier-Stokes equations); a truly major open problem in mathematics solved by computer.

Anthropic: hackers are stealing Claude tokens from subscribers.

Semis at our Tech conference: companies highlighted a strong AI spending environment with tight supply; Broadcom reaffirmed its recently-issued AI revenue targets of >100% growth in FY27/28; Qualcomm noted high confidence in its FY29 AI datacenter revenue target of $15bn, with Robotics as an incremental opportunity.

Copper: reached a new ATH above $14500 supported by renewed US tariff risks and a tight physical market; our Global Copper Basket (GSXGCOPP) comprises 25 mining companies with a large share of EBITDA from copper exploitation and is expected to outperform as copper demand increases.

ECB: rate decision tmrw; we expect a 25bps hike (fully priced); focus will be on the updated staff projections and Lagarde’s comments on the policy outlook; we think that Sep is the last hike of this tightening cycle.

Stat of the Day: the S&P has now recorded 24 consecutive sessions without a >1% intraday trading band.

Chart of the Day: recent Hyperscaler capex estimates have settled above $1000bn for 2027/28.

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities.