S&T SELL

GS Eq Positioning and Key CTA Levels

Jul 28, 202620 pages

From the report报告摘录Geopolitical Energy Flows: Middle East hostilities drive HFs to net buy US Energy stocks for 6th straight week (short covers outpacing long sales 1.8:1, largest 5-month short covering), signaling strategic sector tilt…

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

Please see below for a consolidated recap of the various GS positioning metrics.

1. CTA Corner: Baseline flow forecasts indicate the community could sell around $7.5bn globally this week with the heaviest selling coming from the SPX ($4.5bn). Over the next month, trend signals largely remain positive despite the slightly negative signals across short-term tenors (link). 2. GS PB: Global equities were net sold for a 2nd straight week (-0.3 SDs 1-year), as gross trading activity increased driven almost entirely by short sales. Domestically, US equities were marginally net bought on the week (+0.1 SDs 1-year), driven by long buys + short covers in Single Stocks offset by short sales in Macro Products. Amid increased hostilities in the middle east and rising oil prices, HFs net bought US Energy stocks for a sixth straight week (+0.7 SDs 1-year), driven by risk unwinds with short covers outpacing long sales (1.8 to 1). This week’s short covering in US Energy was the largest in 5 months and ranks in the 97th percentile on a 5-year lookback (link, link). 3. Buybacks: Approximately 78% of our total order count is currently trading via 10b5-1 plans, representing a marginal decrease from last week's level of 80% (which inherently corresponds to a larger % in discretionary buyback orders). We currently estimate that ~31% of S&P 500 corporates (by count) are in their open window. By the end of next week, we estimate ~53% of the S&P 500 will be in open window. This brings one of the market's larger buyers back into equities (link). 4. Charts in Focus: Sentiment Indicator, Market Breadth, S&P Vol & Midterms, US Panic Index, Risk Appetite Indicator, SPX vs. Singles Skew, Call Skew vs. Put Skew, S&P Futures Liquidity, Funding Spreads vs S&P 500, S&P 500 Implied Correlation

CTA Corner - Over the next 1 week... o Flat tape: Sellers $7.48B ($5.96B out of the US) o Up tape: Sellers $275mm ($2.03B out of the US) o Down tape: Sellers $31.46B ($15.1B out of the US) - Over the next 1 month… o Flat tape: Buyers $3.04B ($5.96B out of the US) o Up tape: Buyers $34.39B ($8.31B into the US) o Down tape: Sellers $184.27B ($71.13B out of the US) - Key pivot levels for SPX: o Short term: 7455 o Med term: 7204 o Long term: 6765

Data as of 27Jul26. Simulated results are for illustrative purposes only. GS provides no assurance or guarantee that the strategy will operate or would have operated in the past in a manner consistent with the above analysis. Past performance figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Note: a 1x std-dev mkt move above is 1.62% in 1-wk and 3.78% in 1-mth

Simulated results are for illustrative purposes only. GS provides no assurance or guarantee that the

strategy will operate or would have operated in the past in a manner consistent with the above analysis.

Past performance figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

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