GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS Oil Transportation Aroundtown Downgrade Terna Tryg Upgrade Demant Global Corporate Access

Equity Research 12 October 2026 | 6:35AM BST

GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Oil Transportation | Aroundtown Downgrade | Terna | Tryg Upgrade | Demant | Global | Corporate Access

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Energy: Quantifying transportation costs by oil company. US and North Sea producers most advantaged, Asian refiners the hardest hit - Freight rates have surged 10-50x across all tanker classes since year start, leading to a wide divergence in realized price and margins for E&Ps and Refiners across the globe, and a return to regional trading in a traditionally global market. We introduce a route-by-route analysis with an evaluation of the relative advantages of oil producers and refiners, based on their geographical location and their long-term tanker availability. On the upstream side, North Sea producers (VAR, Aker-BP, Harbour, Equinor) and North American producers are relative winners, due to end-market proximity. European refiners face an estimated $11-17/bbl increase in freight costs versus historical norms. Overall, Equinor appears the most advantaged, while Repsol and Galp screen as negatively impacted due to their dependence on long-haul imports. (Michele Della Vigna)

Europe Real Estate: 3Q26 sector preview: we cut 2026E NTAs by 6%; AT1 down to Sell - Ahead of 3Q26 results, we reflect the latest macro trends in our estimates. We expect much of the debate, given low stock valuations and risks to property values, to focus again on capital allocation, disposals and leverage, while those with stronger balance sheets or high-yielding acquisition opportunities would continue to be in a better position to grow earnings and scale. With a volatile rates market, our top picks include thematic ideas with strong rental growth / development potential in logistics and datacentres (e.g., CTP, Merlin, BBOX), retail names with higher yields and less sensitivity to rates, and London offices (e.g., URW, LAND, BLND, Derwent). Should rates materially move down (on a full reopening of Hormuz for instance), we acknowledge that German residential players could somewhat re-rate. We downgrade Aroundtown from Neutral to Sell; we now forecast decreasing EPS over 2026-28E mostly on higher finance costs and forecast ICR to reach c.2.2x by 2030 (covenants <1.8x). (Jonathan Kownator)

Terna (TRN.MI): Tightening balance sheet may cap future growth; Sell - We revisit our investment thesis for Terna, where we believe the market is increasingly overlooking the constraints that may weigh on it: rising balance sheet utilisation reduces the likelihood of meaningful capex upgrades, while growing affordability concerns could pressure a remuneration framework that remains relatively reliant on incentives. We expect modest earnings growth (+c.2% EPS CAGR to 2030E), making

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the double-digit premium P/E valuation hard to justify. Our new PT implies -3% downside, vs c.20% average upside for our Utilities coverage. We remain Sell-rated. (Mafalda Pombeiro)

Tryg (TRYG.CO): Upgrade to Neutral on inflecting growth and improving operational KPIs - We upgrade to Neutral as the stock has underperformed the wider sector by approximately 17% YTD, and the broader market by around 20%, weighed down by decelerating top-line growth and market concerns regarding AI and autonomous vehicles (AV). We believe the downside is now largely priced-in with growth inflecting in 2027, driven by multiple commercial initiatives and distribution partnerships, while relative valuation has compressed to decade lows. We raise 2026-2030 EPS by c.3% and…