GS Gillard Commods All time high copper 7 Sep 2026

GS Gillard - Commods All time high copper 7 Sep 2026 Adam Gillard · Goldman Sachs · Commodities Mon 7 Sep 2026, 12:19pm ET

Summary: LME copper makes a new all-time-high on 80% YTD adv. Despite the catchy headline we don’t think there is anything new today; vol is offered as flat price moves higher and we think option positioning is 3/10 max. Think the franchise has 4/10 futures length to play a grind higher as LME continues to tighten on strong US imports. We have modest length mainly via LME spreads. As stated previously, the damage has been done; the threat of a US tariff was enough to shift all surplus metal to the US. Current dynamic of high imports, financed be Wall Street, without an inflationary tariff, is optimal from the administrations perspective; if imports drop off think tariff rhetoric changes given continued Critical Mineral security concerns.

Side-note: Never in my career did I think we’d see both (global) inventory and price on the highs together. No shortage of copper, just all in the wrong place (CMX). Regional deficit trading gtc.

Mine supply: Running negative y/y but this is not new; with global inventory up YTD hard to argue against being in a (global) cathode surplus. TCs a red herring. Frankly none of this matters; think we’ll be trading regional deficits for the foreseeable.

US Imports: Remain firm; August should be ~200k MT whilst MTD September is already tracking at 77k MT basis ship-tracking data. We think the US has over-imported 730k MT YTD.

LME Spreads: Which is why LME term structure keeps flaring; smelters can’t run concentrate related shorts to prompt anymore to compensate for the lower headline TC given there is so little available metal outside of China / US.

Chinese Positioning: Not stretched despite low domestic inventory; think they struggle adding length on the ATH with relatively tepid end-demand