GS Hafif GS Flow of Funds Witching Hour

GS Hafif - GS Flow of Funds: Witching Hour 13 Oct 2026 Gail Hafif · Goldman Sachs · Analyst, FICC & Equities (with Brian Garrett, Lee Coppersmith) 13 Oct 2026

It is an uncomfortable shift to start looking ahead as sentiment remains depressed and the macro shows no clear path of resolution. It is hard to deny, though, that the technical set up is changing for US equities. Supportive flows, in the form of corporate buybacks, may be met by MF selling pressure into their year- end, but will soon be joined by positive retail flows and a historical foreign investor bid post-midterms.

We expect to see a need for continued active trading as rotations under the hood persist given the concentration of investor positioning (particularly in the AI trade). The options market is implying historically low daily moves which we think signify how low conviction is in either direction – resulting in mispriced tails. We think it makes sense to own optionality in gamma tenors here as the market awaits several prominent catalysts (EPS, midterms, fed).

• For those looking for an attractive hedge: QQQ 20Nov26 725 685 Put Spread indicatively costs $6.80 ref 741.8

• 33d 20.5v vs 14d 24.59v, 5.9x max gross payout

• For those underweight and looking to protect performance in a right-tail scenario: QQQ 31Dec26 790 Call indicatively costs $8.68 ref 741.8

• RTY > NDX Mar27 2.5% OTM Call: 3% offer

• RTY > NDX Mar27 2.5% OTM Call Contingent on RTY up at maturity: 2% offer

• 31Dec SPXXAI > SPX outperf (22 implied cor)

• 2.5% OTM indicatively costs 2.75%

• 5% OTM indicatively costs 1.95%

They’re baaaaack (almost). As we wade into earnings season, we expect corporates to progressively exit blackout ~1-2 days post release. We estimate ~10% will be in open window by the end of the week and 48% by the end of the month.

November is the 2nd highest month of corporate repurchases on our desk and will bring back a key source of demand to the marketplace. The full force of corporates won’t pick up until almost the end of this month, so the market still has a bit to go before this flow reaches its peak formidability.

Another interesting breakdown from our buyback desk reveals the dispersion in the marketplace has been evident in corporate demand as well. Energy and Utilities posted impressive YoY gains, though collectively comprising 6% of total buybacks. Meanwhile the two heaviest weights, info tech and financials, had disparate changes with the former -40% from last year and the latter up 88%.

Sector | Value ($, Mil) | % of total | YoY

Financials | 237,358.53 | 19% | -40%

Information Technology | 578,590.94 | 46% | 88%

Consumer Discretionary | 86,133.05 | 7% | -10%

Health Care | 58,456.51 | 5% | -20%

Industrials | 70,451.86 | 6% | -29%

Consumer Staples | 52,392.75 | 4% | 140%

Real Estate | 18,363.53 | 1% | 65%

Energy | 58,425.20 | 5% | 480%

Communication Services | 84,792.38 | 7% | -25%

Materials | 17,417.40 | 1% | -7%

Utilities | 6,765.00 | 1% | 538%