GS Johnstone TMT Spec Sales

GS Sean Johnstone - GS TMT SPEC SALES: Stripe still circling PayPal; Software Prometheus at Communacopia ; Tele2 Niel using swaps ; WPP & Rightmove 17 Aug 2026 Sean Johnstone · Goldman Sachs · TMT Specialist Sales Mon 17 Aug 2026, 3:08am ET

Last week was another constructive but quiet tape for TMT: Fundamental LS managers were up 1.0% and Systematic LS managers were up 1.5%, both now c.15% YTD, but turnover and volumes were very light, with Friday the lowest-volume day of the year, factor volatility settling down, momentum volatility normalising and the VIX closing at a YTD low. The NDX still ground out a third straight weekly gain and is now only c.2% below all-time highs.

In semis, reports suggest TSMC’s Arizona ramp is accelerating, with the 2nm fab potentially arriving up to four quarters earlier than expected and the second 3nm fab also ahead of schedule, which should support confidence in US leading-edge capacity, AI ramp timelines and sentiment across TSM, NVDA, AMD, AAPL and the broader semi supply chain. In payments, Stripe has reportedly finalising a more than $7bn acquisition of OpenRouter, deepening its push into AI infrastructure via model routing, token billing and multi-model selection, alongside ongoing PayPal bid speculation involving Stripe/Advent, where investors are debating regulatory risk and whether any deal could trigger broader payments consolidation.

PayPal remains a potential bid target, per Techcrunch/WSJ reporting that talks with Stripe and Advent have continued and could result in a deal in the coming weeks (this follows a a July 2026 offer that valued PayPal at roughly $53bn. PayPal’s board viewed the bid as inadequate saying it undervalued the company relative to the turnaround potential).

Investor debate the regulatory risk given overall in merchant processing (Stripe vs. Braintree) and checkout experiences is significant. Full combination would face U.S. and European scrutiny. The other investor debate is whether a deal, if it were to happen, could act as a catalyst for broader payments consolidation, including investor questions around whether someone like Shopify could look at Adyen? See Mo’s latest take on Adyen post results

Separately Bloomberg reporting that Stripe has finalized a deal to acquire OpenRouter that helps customers to select different AI models to perform different tasks, depending on their specific needs and budget. Techcrunch. Positions Stripe further into high-growth AI infrastructure (token billing, multi-model routing) beyond core payments.

Software has finally clawed back to flat YTD and has quietly outperformed semis for three weeks in a row — its longest run in roughly 15 months — pushing the sector’s 14-day RSI into overbought territory, but investors are still far from convinced, with interest concentrated in data infrastructure, tools and security while sentiment toward Apps/SaaS has not really inflected despite the recent price action and Workday bid speculation. The Workday bounce last week therefore feels more tactical than decisive, with investors still

debating whether a buyout is realistic given the size and financing challenge, what Silver Lake’s exit would actually be, and whether AI/terminal-value concerns continue to weigh on software multiples; that sets up a genuinely interesting Communacopia + Technology Conference in September, where a heavy software line-up — especially Prometheus presenting on day one — should give investors a timely read on whether this is just a positioning/RSI bounce or the start of a broader software sentiment reset.

Tele2 / Xavier Niel: local Swedish press reports that Xavier Niel, via Freya Investissement, is increasing his economic exposure to Tele2 through financial swap agreements and share-class conversions, effectively trying to bring his ownership closer to his voting position while staying below Sweden’s 30% mandatory takeover-bid threshold. Niel already controls a high level of votes through Tele2’s dual-class structure, but needs to buy roughly another 6% of the capital to better balance votes and ownership; he appears to be using swaps to allows him to benefit economically from more Tele2 shares without formally…