GS Johnstone TMT Spec Sales 20 Aug 2026

GS Johnstone - TMT SPEC SALES Momentum unwind OpenAI ARR Hynix EPS upgrades 20 Aug 2026 Johnstone · Goldman Sachs · TMT Specialist Sales, FICC & Equities Thu 20 Aug 2026, 3:28 AM ET

Pain again as the GS TMT Mo’ Pair down ~7% in 2-days, led by semis against a ‘calm’ SPX & VIX backdrop. As of 1pm (EST) yesterday we estimated Systematic L/S managers down 1.4% (>3 SD on 3 years), worst day in more than 2 years. Losses spread across all regions with momentum alone contributing 60bps to the underperformance though still up 1.7% for the month. Fundamental L/S managers down 0.7% but still up 0.8% for the month.

The move last 2 days looks less like a single-factor rates move and more like a broader positioning reset. Higher rates and weaker momentum were already weighing on crowded AI winners and saw Software squeeze again (Software vs. Semis +4.26% and 9% over 5 days), while the fundamental debate has near term has been whether Anthropic’s reported ARR. Yesterday the move was then amplified by healthcare, where Moderna and partner Merck rallied sharply on positive Ph3 INTerpath-001 cancer-vaccine data (see GIR). Moderna was already up materially YTD and heavily shorted, so the squeeze pulled generalists and retail into healthcare while forcing selling in crowded winners such as Tech, AI and semis. Added to the volatility I worry that we're also now in a period of expectations mgmt from the big AI labs ahead of IPOs and all this comes when HFs are all starting to try to work out what to regross into in the September conference season… Our Prime data show that TMT stocks are the most net bought among all US sectors in August so far, led by hyperscalers and semiconductor names; Aggregate net exposure in Broad AI (GSTMTAIP) has risen so far in August but remains well below the highs seen in May.

Memory cycle strength confirmed by SK Hynix’s record buyback (GIR raising 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS by 4%/10%/10% and GIR assumes further buybacks could follow), and Samsung Foundry’s first meaningful price hikes in years. Plus spec/press that at the end of month Samsung to above a bigger cash return.

I am off for the next 10 days good luck out there – looking forward to Communacopia + Technology Conference in early September in San Francisco. The event should be a useful first opportunity to hear many management teams address investors after Q2 results, particularly after the latest wave of AI capex announcements, early signs of monetisation, and ongoing macro crosscurrents. Many of the presentations will be webcast (timing may not be that European friendly) and should be available on the GIR site. Event link and agenda: just to give you an idea of where interest centres see the top 10 requested companies in order – Datadog, Coreweave, MSFT, Shopify, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, Nebius, TSMC and Snowflake.

OpenAI ARR: Q2 revenue rose 18% to $6.7bn, while operating losses widened to $12.3bn from $9.3bn in Q1. More positively, CNBC quoted CFO Sarah Friar saying ARR is already up 35% to $40bn quarter-to- date (vs ~$20 bn end-2025), implying growth has accelerated to roughly 250% y/y in August, while enterprise revenue run-rate is up 50%. Usage also appears strong, with OpenAI’s AI coding and work products now at 20m weekly active users, and further Codex numbers expected to be disclosed shortly.

Logitech: -ve read from GN Store Nord cutting gaming guidance isn't a great read for Logitech per the release “the pace of market recovery has proven slightly more gradual than assumed earlier, with